BOSTON – The Hospitality Asset Managers Association (“HAMA”) released the results of its bi-annual survey of asset managers’ thoughts, experiences and forecasts for the upcoming year as the hotel industry continues to deal with the on-going pandemic. With approximately 100 participants, topics ranged from “return to 2019” RevPAR levels predictions to the status of the lending market. Additional topics included current acquisition appetites, new brand/management plans and the leading issues of concern for asset managers right now.
The survey was conducted in preparation for HAMA’s 2021 Annual Spring Meeting, which was held virtually in response to the pandemic. In total, 98 asset managers comprising more than half of membership participated in the survey.
“As vaccinations in the U.S. continue, it would appear the light at the end of the tunnel for the hospitality industry is coming into clear focus, and we are delighted to find it is not an oncoming train,” said Larry Trabulsi, CHAM, EVP at CHMWarnick and current HAMA president. “Based on our findings, while there is obvious optimism about a much quicker than expected recovery, a meaningful percentage of hoteliers still are working towards solutions. We are confident that better times are not too far ahead. Whether or not individual owners and properties will continue to survive and hopefully thrive remains to be seen.’”
Survey findings show that:
Nearly 30 percent of respondents are contemplating brand or management changes as part of their recovery strategy, approximately five percent believed they would change brands, ten percent foresaw changing management companies and roughly 15 percent believe they would change both.
Approximately 15 percent of participants expected to either hand back keys to the lender or enter into a forced sale situation. – Nearly 10 percent already had.
Most HAMA members (50 percent) believe RevPAR will return to 2019 levels by 2023. Not quite ten percent believe it will occur as early as 2022, while approximately 37 percent believed it would happen in 2024. Predictions for 2025 and 2026 came in at three and one percent, respectively.
The three factors most concerning to participants right now include labor availability (75 percent), demand (60 percent) and labor costs (55 percent).
On average, in urban markets for full-service and luxury properties, nearly 45 percent of those surveyed anticipated acquisition price discounts of 11 to 20 percent. While one respondent believed discounts could reach 41 percent or more off pre-pandemic pricing, approximately 15 percent felt discounts would be as low as zero to eleven percent.