One week after rising to the top of the SEC standings and national rankings, Alabama was humbled in shocking fashion following an upset loss at Vanderbilt, the first win in program history over a top-ranked opponent for the Commodores.
Discombobulated on defense and out-coached throughout, the defending SEC champions never led in the game and were blistered at the line of scrimmage by a Vanderbilt team that stayed one step ahead of Alabama in every critical moment, leading to a potentially program-changing victory for Clark Lea and staff.
Alabama slides from our projected No. 2 to No. 11 this week as the last of four SEC at-large selections in the expanded College Football Playoff. It’s going to take at least 10 wins to solidify a berth for the Crimson Tide, who still have to play four nationally-ranked opponents this fall.
Miami also moved back despite erasing a 25-point deficit on the road to beat Cal. That’s the second consecutive game the Hurricanes have dug themselves into a hole only to be bailed out by quarterback Cam Ward and favorable decisions from officiating crews to stay unbeaten. From the ACC, one-loss Clemson looks like the more complete team at the moment and these two programs appear to be on a crash course to meet in Charlotte the first weekend of December with a league crown on the line.
Projected CFP Rankings
1. Ohio State
Big Ten champion
Competitive for a half, the Buckeyes blitzed Iowa in the third quarter with three touchdowns to pull away from the Hawkeyes. It was a test prior to Saturday’s showdown at Oregon and one that Ohio State handled with ease. The Buckeyes will likely jump Texas in the Week 8 Associated Press Top 25 if they handle the Ducks, and it’s reasonable they can get through the regular season unblemished.
2. Texas
SEC champion
Quinn Ewers is back in time for the Red River Rivalry with Oklahoma and that’s great news for the Longhorns. Arch Manning played well in place of the injured starter for Texas, but this is Ewers’ team and he’s the one seasoned in big games with a couple legend-making wins under his belt. Texas is the SEC’s lone unbeaten and thus, right now, is the projected league champion.
3. Clemson
ACC champion
Red-zone issues aside, Clemson handled Florida State with another impressive performance offensively. This group has figured it out since the opening loss to Georgia and looks the part on both sides of the football. SMU and Pitt are two others — along with Miami — at the top of the ACC challenging the Tigers.
4. BYU
Big 12 champion
Whether you’re a believer in the Cougars or not, you have to respect what BYU has done through Week 6. This team went into last week’s open date with sizable confidence and moved up three spots in the latest AP Top 25 after a bevy of upsets in front of them. Now, BYU deals with Arizona and quarterback Noah Fifita on Saturday as a marked team in the Big 12.
5. Georgia
The Bulldogs fought off upset-minded Auburn between the hedges and wore down the Tigers in a much-needed bounce back win following the setback at Alabama. Georgia still plays Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee this season, so the schedule’s considerably back-loaded with chances at quality wins.
6. Oregon
No team in college football has a bigger chance at making a resounding statement in Week 7 than the Ducks, who host unbeaten and second-ranked Ohio State at Autzen Stadium. There’s been issues up front at times this fall and Dillon Gabriel tossed two bad interceptions last week against Michigan State, so correcting those mistakes offensively is essential in prep for the Buckeyes.
7. Tennessee
Here’s the caveat for the Vols at No. 7 in this week’s projection despite losing as a double-digit favorite at Arkansas over the weekend: as long as Tennessee splits upcoming games with Alabama and Georgia and finishes with 10 wins, Josh Heupel’s team is in. That said, Tennessee did squander a golden opportunity to move into the top five after stubbing its toe with a disappointing performance offensively in Fayetteville.
8. Penn State
This is not one of college football’s sexiest unbeatens, but James Franklin is not trying to win Miss Universe as long as his team continues to take care of business week after week. The Nittany Lions travel to USC next to battle a Trojans team that’s licking wounds after falling flat at Minnesota for their second Big Ten loss.
9. Miami
The Hurricanes will be favored in every game the rest of the way and are the ACC’s lone unbeaten remaining through six weeks, but is this squad upset-proof? Miami has shown some warts on defense the last couple of games after allowing several explosive plays and much of the reason the Hurricanes are No. 1 in the conference right now on that side of the football is due to its success in early-september before the league slate began. Ward’s been careless at times with the football, too.
10. Iowa State
The Cyclones move up a spot in this week’s playoff projection after handling Baylor to stay unbeaten. BYU remains the Big 12 favorite at this point according to our predictions the rest of the way, but Matt Campbell’s group has a great shot in the coming weeks to leap the Cougars if there are any unexpected stumbles. At any rate, they’re going to have a great at-large resume if they do not win the conference.
11. Alabama
Take everything you thought you knew about the SEC Championship race this season and toss it in the trash. Alabama’s loss at Vanderbilt reset how we’re looking at the second half of the campaign for the Crimson Tide, who are in danger of missing the playoff despite the nation’s best win thus far (Georgia). There’s soul-searching this week in Tuscaloosa prior to Saturday’s bout with South Carolina.
12. Boise State
Keep giving the football to Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty and good things will happen for the Broncos. Boise State is back at the top of the Group of Five ranks and inside the top 20 nationally after destroying Utah State on the road. Jeanty was only needed for a half as the nation’s rushing leader continues his season-long assault on opposing defenses.
Projected CFP first-round games
- (12) Boise State at (5) Georgia — Winner plays (4) BYU
- (11) Alabama at (6) Oregon — Winner plays (3) Clemson
- (10) Iowa State at (7) Tennessee — Winner plays (2) Texas
- (9) Miami at (8) Penn State — Winner plays (1) Ohio State
Opening-round matchups at campus sites based on this Week 7 projection features Boise State at Georgia, Alabama at Oregon, Miami at Penn State and Iowa State at Tennessee. That’s two first-round home games each for the SEC and Big Ten.
Winners of those four games would move on to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at bowl sites including the Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 team in the quarters, so second-seeded Alabama would be playing in New Orleans.
Ole Miss stays alive in SEC
With their backs against the wall, the Rebels put together a nearly flawless effort during a 24-point win at South Carolina and effectively turned the page on an upset loss to Kentucky. Ole Miss plays at top-15 LSU this weekend in a game that’s not getting as much national attention as perhaps it should given how loaded the slate is.
Prime opportunities ahead for unbeatens Army, Navy
Did anyone have these two service academies unblemished heading into Week 7? Navy has the best win of the two after beating Memphis a few weeks back, but both the Midshipmen and Black Knights have opportunities ahead to get into the top 25 and playoff conversation. Both play Notre Dame in the coming weeks, another team in control of its playoff destiny despite the early-season loss to NIU.
It was going to take an unbeaten regular season and conference championship for the Dukes to be in the playoff conversation given this season’s schedule, but last weekend’s road loss to Louisiana-Monroe flatlines those chances. First-year coach Bob Chesney and the Dukes, who have been our projected Group of Five champion the last two weeks, need extreme chaos from Boise State, UNLV and others to get there at this point.
