Here’s what’s at stake in the fight for the US Senate | John L. Micek

Good Sunday morning, everyone.

We have been told more than once the race for the White House, pitting Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris against Republican former President Donald Trump, is one of the most consequential of our lifetimes.

But if you can tear your glance away from the White House derby, there’s a pretty significant argument to be made that the “most consequential” honor might really go to the fight for control of the U.S. Senate.

And you’ve probably already heard about the Bay State’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Republican John Deaton.

• Read More: Warren vs. Deaton: What you need to know about the 2024 race for US Senate in Mass.

So let’s zoom out and take a broader look.

Senate Democrats are struggling to hold onto a slender, 51-seat majority, with Harris often called upon to cast a tie-breaking vote.

This year, future U.S. Supreme Court confirmations, cabinet appointments for the eventual White House administration, treaty ratifications, and lower and appellate court nominations, among other critical legislative actions, are on the line.

And that means a friendly Senate is vitally important for whoever wins the White House.

All told, 34 Senate seats are on the ballot this year. but only a handful are expected to play a key role.

A seat currently held by retiring U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., appears destined to go Republican.

Seats in Ohio and Montana, respectively held by incumbent Democratic U.S. Sens. Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester, are on the bubble.

That means Republicans only need to flip one seat to recapture control of the 100-member chamber.

Recent polling by The New York Times and Siena College shows Republicans poised to retake the chamber with just about three weeks to go before Election Day, and with early voting already started in many states.

“The Democrats went into this with a brutal map,” Matt L. Barron, a veteran Western Massachusetts political consultant who’s working on behalf of Nebraska’s independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn, said. “It will be a very closely divided Senate — by one or two seats.”

Other races to watch include an open Senate seat in Michigan, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman.

Ditto for Wisconsin’s race between Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde, which was just moved to “toss-up” status by The Cook Political Report.

Democrats are “on offense” in Florida and Texas for seats respectively held by Republican U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, both Trump supporters, Barron noted.

Polling shows tight races there, according to The Hill.

Meanwhile, the contest in heavily Republican Nebraska between independent Osborn and Republican two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer, has been described as “more competitive than it should be,” according to CBS News.

And don’t forget the race in battleground Pennsylvania between Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick.

Senate campaigns always have been tough “because they’re all individual races,” Michael Goldman, a veteran Democratic consultant from Boston, said.

In each contest, voters ask key questions: “‘Does the candidate understand the problems of people like me? Do they care about the problems? And can they do something about it?” Goldman said.

In the races “where [candidates] are in trouble, people just don’t think their senators are going to be there for them,“ Goldman continued. ”Each Senate fight becomes a battle of ‘Do they care about me?’”

You can’t tell the (endorsement) players without a scorecard

With Election Day closing in, endorsements for this fall’s five ballot questions are piling up heavier than the traffic on the Southeast Expressway on a busy Saturday.

You can add state Rep. Matthew Muratore, the Republican candidate for the state Senate’s Plymouth and Barnstable District, who’d like you to know that he’s a firm “no” on a question that could boost the minimum wage for tipped workers.

Muratore, who faces Democrat Dylan Fernandes, a fellow House lawmaker, in the closely watched contest, announced his position on the ballot question after a roundtable discussion with restaurant workers from the Upper Cape last week.

“Our restaurants are the backbone of our tourism economy, and if Question 5 were to pass, it would decimate so many local restaurants who already rely on seasonal foot traffic,” Muratore said in a statement.

Respondents to a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll last week seemed to agree, with 51.6% opposed to the ballot question, compared to 39.6% who agreed.

The poll of 500 Massachusetts likely voters, conducted from Oct. 1 to 5, had a margin of error of 4.4%.

Back to her roots

State Rep. Hannah Kane, R-11th Worcester, has a new gig that brings her closer to her roots.

Last week, the Shrewsbury lawmaker was tapped to serve on the state’s newly created Massachusetts-Ireland Trade Commission (which feels like the most Massachusetts thing ever for lawmakers to create).

In a statement, Kane said her great-grandfather left his home in the tiny village of Fordston in Trim in 1884 when he was just 15 for a new life in the United States.

“My family and I have always celebrated our Irish ancestry,” Kane said. “I am honored to be a member of the Massachusetts-Ireland Trade Commission and to continue to find ways to strengthen the economic ties and build on the historical relationship between us.”

The commission, which was authorized in this year’s state budget, is responsible for “evaluating” the state’s relationship with the Republic of Ireland and finding ways to strengthen those ties.

It’s part of the state’s Executive Office of Economic Development.

Kane, who’s now in her fifth term, will serve as House Minority Leader Bradley H. Jones’, R-20th Middlesex, designee on the commission. She’ll be one of six current, or former, lawmakers to serve on the 15-member panel.

Kane will “will work to build on that relationship by promoting mutually beneficial trade and investment opportunities between Massachusetts and Ireland,” Jones said in a statement.

They said it

“I’ve made it very clear that I don’t want Donald Trump to be the next president of the United States.”

If you need a reminder, U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, is still not a fan of the 45th president. But unlike some of his fellow Republicans, the former Massachusetts governor is not a “yes” vote for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

Sunday numbers

49.8%: The percentage of respondents to last week’s Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll who said they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Away from the horse race numbers, this question tends to be the most reliable barometer of public sentiment.

On your TV screen

Boston Globe journalist Victoria McGrane guests on WBZ-TV’s “Keller @ Large” at 8:30 a.m. on Sunday. to preview State Education Secretary Patrick Tutwiler stops by WCVB-TV’s “On the Record” at 11 a.m. Sunday. And U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch, D-8th District, talks to to NBC-10 Boston’s “At Issue” at 11:30 a.m. Sunday (h/t, as ever, to Politico Massachusetts).

Turned up to 11

The great Johnny Marr, founding guitarist and songwriter for The Smiths came through Boston last week on a double bill with fellow indie legends — and fellow Mancunians — James (I was there. It was transcendent).

In 2003, Marr, performing as Johnny Marr & the Healers, released the unjustly overlooked LP “Boomslang.” It would be the only record the combo ever recorded.

The LP has just been reissued, complete with bonus tracks, providing a chance for a new audience to hear the iconic guitarist’s solo debut. From that record, here’s “Last Ride.”

Your Sunday long read

Everyone starts somewhere.

Before the late Tom Clancy, the author of “The Hunt for Red October,” “Patriot Games,” and other political thrillers was a best-selling author and entertainment titan, he was just an insurance salesman from suburban Washington, D.C., trying to get a book published.

On the 40th anniversary of “The Hunt for Red October’s” release, The Washington Post looks back at Clancy’s rise — and the role his hometown newspaper played in helping him get there.

” … a Washington Post critic pronounced the book breathlessly exciting,’ a glowing review that helped make Clancy’s reputation,” the newspaper reported. “A subsequent endorsement by President Ronald Reagan — who was reported to have called the book a “perfect yarn” — would cement it.”

“Within the year, Clancy would be celebrated at the White House, meet the president and emerge as a kind of spokesman for Reagan-era policies,” The Post continued.

The rest, as they say, is publishing history.

That’s it for this week. Have a peaceful weekend. We’ll see you back here on Monday.