After a 1-4 start to the season, the Patriots are subbing in highly-touted rookie QB Drake Maye on Sunday for his first NFL start. Maye draws a tough matchup against the one-loss Texans.
Oddsmakers aren’t expecting a close game, as Houston is a touchdown favorite at most NFL betting sites.
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Texans vs. Patriots prediction and best bets
- Texans -6.5: -115 odds at Fanatics Sportsbook
- Drake Maye over 25.5 rushing yards: -114 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Most sportsbooks list the Texans as a seven-point favorite, and Houston backers can get a better number at FanDuel.
Maye is bringing a lot of excitement to New England, but he’s playing behind an offensive line that’s given up 10 QB hits per week and the second-most sacks in the NFL. The former North Carolina Tar Heel is quicker than QB Jacoby Brissett and could take less punishment, but Maye will need time to adjust to NFL defenses.
Houston averages three sacks per game and put a beating on Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams, registering 11 QB hits and seven sacks.
I expect Maye to be on the move a lot against the Texans, so I’m taking Drake to surpass his rushing yards prop. Maye averaged 37 rushing yards per game in his final season at North Carolina.
The Texans are a Super Bowl contender with only one loss against the undefeated Vikings. Houston won’t have NFL receiving yards leader WR Nico Collins on Sunday, but Houston has plenty of pass-catching playmakers who can mitigate the loss.
NFL Week 6 Texans vs. Patriots odds
Bettors clearly don’t think the spread is big enough in this matchup.
According to the PFF Greenline, over 80% of betting tickets and money wagered is on the Texans to cover. An overwhelming majority of wagers and cash are on the over, possibly because of the expectation that New England’s offense will show signs of life with Maye under center.
Both teams are 1-3-1 against the spread this season, per TeamRankings. Betting the under in Texans and Patriots games is 7-3.
Texans vs. Patriots moneyline odds analysis
Why the Texans could win as the favorite
Best odds: -290 at bet365 Sportsbook
Houston has the second-best passing offense in the NFL. Collins’ placement on injured reserve is a blow, but I don’t expect QB C.J. Stroud and Co. to have a major decline.
The Texans still have WR Stefon Diggs, and WR Tank Dell hasn’t gotten much burn this season because of Collins’ dominance. I expect Dell to receive a larger target share. Dell was second on the team last season with 709 yards and seven touchdowns.
Houston also could benefit from the return of star RB Joe Mixon, who hasn’t played since Week 2. Mixon had 159 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 1, adding another top-end playmaker to the Texans’ offense.
Mixon’s status for Sunday is questionable as he slowly ramped up his workload in practice this week.
Houston’s defense is third-best against the pass, allowing only 154 yards per game. This is a less-than-ideal matchup for a rookie QB making his first start.
Why the Patriots could win as the underdog
Best odds: +245 at FanDuel Sportsbook
New England’s ball carriers can help take the pressure off Maye, and Houston has been average at stopping the run. The Patriots’ 131 rushing yards per game ranks eighth, and improvement in the passing game will create more holes for RB Rhamondre Stevenson.
If Stevenson’s foot injury sidelines him, it’ll be RB Antonio Gibson getting the carries. The veteran had a season-high 96 rushing yards in Week 2 against the Seahawks.
Maye was excellent at throwing on the run in college, and that skill needs to be on display for the Patriots to notch an upset victory. However, Maye doesn’t need to post video game numbers to take down the Texans.
New England has a top-10 defense that’s given up only four passing touchdowns. If Stroud is held in check, the Patriots must be ready to stop the run, which they’ve struggled with in the past three games.
