Champions League bold predictions: Christian Pulisic stars again, Barcelona stake a claim for contention, more

Round three of the Champions League league phase is upon us. We’ve got all the action for you across Paramount+, CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network all season long. Here’s what we’ll be looking out for in three major games across Tuesday and Wednesday.

Milan vs. Club Brugge: Pulisic leads the way again

For the first time in his European club career, Christian Pulisic has the role he seemed destined for when he burst onto the scene nearly nine years ago. He is the most important forward on a team with serious aspirations for domestic contention and perhaps even a Champions League run. It is worth saying that this in itself might already be something no other American soccer player has achieved. Even the best of the best before Pulisic were either stars of the mid-tier (think Clint Dempsey) or the useful squad pieces that so many USMNT internationals currently are. That was even Pulisic’s role at Chelsea and, as good as his output was, in his first year at Milan. A useful player no doubt but not one for whom space was invariably found.

This season that would appear to have changed. Pulisic has more outfield minutes in Serie A than any other Milan player by a quite sizeable margin. He has 640 of a possible 720 to his name. In second place Tijjani Reijnders has 553. That is almost a full game more played by the US international than anyone else in red and black. Some of that may come down to availability, such a challenge for him before this season, but Pulisic has used his time extremely well.

Six goals and three assists is a heady return so far; unlike last season there are enough signs to convince that it will last too. Had the Pulisic of 2023-24 carried on into this year it is eminently possible his output would have slowed down. Instead, Captain America is doing much more to ensure his returns stay high. His non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 have gone from 0.28 to 0.36, a rise that is all the more impressive given that he is actually shooting more infrequently. Fewer efforts from range or with his head, still the same poaching skills that were valued by Thomas Tuchel and Stefano Pioli.

The biggest strides, however, have come in creation. Pulisic has long appeared to be more of a carrier than passer, this season that might be changing. His take-ons are down, his passes are up (particularly in the final third), his expected assists (xA) and chances created are skyrocketing. Indeed his 20 of the latter leads Serie A, his xA only slightly off Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. A scorer, creator and consummate team player — the latter a point Fonseca was keen to hammer home after Pulisic had provided the assist in Saturday’s 1-0 win over Udinese.

That game was as illustrative as any of how far Pulisic has come. Whether to hold players in reserve for a crucial meeting with Club Brugge or to freshen up his side, Fonseca rang the changes on Saturday. Where Rafael Leao and Tammy Abraham made way, Pulisic was retained, thrust into the heart of the action as the slightly more withdrawn second striker off Alvaro Morata. There are options upon options to build Milan’s front four. Pulisic is the orange cream crunch in a tin of Quality Street (ship them Stateside if you don’t know what I mean). He’s the stuffing on your Thanksgiving spread. You’re taking him first. And Fonseca will surely do exactly that as he bids to get some points on the board in round three of the Champions League.

Manchester City vs. Sparta Praha: Heavy going for Haaland

Last gasp winners to quell the likes of Wolves and Fulham, a haphazardly constructed squad that looks light in some of the most crucial areas and a titanic off-field saga to distract them: if any club other than Manchester City were in Manchester City’s situation, it would really feel like time to ask some difficult questions about whether these title contending results will last. Perhaps, because it’s Pep Guardiola, City deserve the benefit of the doubt. If anyone can reorient a squad that looks light on players to make the actual chances for Erling Haaland, it’s the greatest coach in the game.

Don’t, however, expect even what on paper appears to be a straightforward European night to be the waltz it was. After all, City have been routinely making life harder for themselves. Even their most comprehensive win of the season so far, 4-0 over Slovan Bratislava, hardly set the world alight. Celtic won by that margin!

The best iterations of City aren’t throwing the kitchen sink at 10 man Arsenal, let alone the midtable sides they’ve scraped by in the last few weeks. By the 90th minute of a Wolves game where they hadn’t led once, City had created 1.3 xG. Against Newcastle 0.91 in a game they led by a single goal for around 20 minutes. We could go deep on the quality of chances they gave up to Fulham, but a slightly rickety defense isn’t that rare for City at this stage of the season. An attack that doesn’t really click into gear until Jack Grealish comes off the bench? That’s new.

To get a sense of City struggles revving up, just look at Erling Haaland’s relative travails. Shotless against Wolves, he is seeing less of the ball per 90 Premier League minutes than at any stage in his career. His 22.16 touches are nearly 20 percent fewer than he got in year one in England. His non-penalty xG is similarly on the downslope and the trajectory is not entirely encouraging, 0.45 against Newcastle, 0.25 against Fulham and zero against Wolves. 

His shot numbers are still holding at around the four per 90 mark but if Kevin De Bruyne isn’t back before too long that might be the next to fall off. With The Belgian on the pitch, Haaland has eight goals off 3.9 xG. In similar minutes without him, one goal off 1.8 xG. City have become a team tailor made for Haaland’s otherworldly skills and the opposition know it. Without De Bruyne they really can just key in on restricting supply to the big man and challenge Jeremy Doku and Savinho to beat them (remember Phil Foden, by the way?).

Expect the same from Sparta Praha on Wednesday. It probably won’t be enough to get them a point, impressive as as Lars Friis’ side have been so far this season. It might not even be enough to keep them from losing by a fair margin. But if the Czech champions can hold firm and slow the City charge it will only heighten the sense that Guardiola’s men are a fair way off it this seaon.

Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich: Catalans prove they’re the real deal

Wednesday brings us one of the first Grade A hyper games of the league phase and this one is replete with more than enough off-field narrative and on-field talent. Certainly, for Barcelona, the visit of Bayern Munich ought to feel momentous. There is no better opponent to enable them to show that no really, they’re back.

The 2015 win over Bayern in the semis might just go down as the apotheosis for post-Guardiola Barcelona, a team that had built financial muscle off the back of winning and deployed it to make a quite excellent team, headlined by the devastating trident of Luis Suarez, Neymar and Lionel Messi. By the time these two met again things had been going downhill fairly briskly. The Neymar bounty had been frittered away and a team put together with little rhyme or reason was pulverised by the Bayern of Hansi Flick, now the man charged with getting Barca back to the summit.

Just to prove this was no fluke, Bayern smashed Barcelona up in the group stage two years later. When they did it again in 2022-23 it just felt a bit mean. The response to this string of setbacks in Catalonia — selling off a long term stake in a host of revenue streams — does not look particularly effective in light of CAS’ recent ruling but one thing seems pretty certain. 

Barcelona are remade. Across Europe’s top five leagues no team is scoring more, no team is picking up points at a greater rate and no team has a better overall xG difference. Raphinha has a compelling case to be the continent’s best creator at this moment, Robert Lewandowski is its best domestic scorer and the young supporting cast around the veterans, so many of them homegrown, is showing composure beyond its years. They will face their toughest test yet in Bayern, but the team that gave up three strikingly similar goals to Eintracht Frankfurt earlier hasn’t entirely kicked its addiction to the inexplicable. This looks like being a day for a revitalized Barcelona.