It’s spooky season in college football, and I don’t mean because of Halloween. We’ve reached the time of year when the sun goes down before the end of midday games and sets on the hopes and dreams of teams with higher aspirations than a win on Saturday.
It’s also the time of year when the lines get a little sharper because there’s so much more information about every team. Most of the guesswork has been removed, making finding an edge more difficult.
I just wish this column had performed better before we reached this point. Alas, this is the hand we’ve dealt ourselves, and like a team trying to shake off an early season loss that could impact its hopes of a championship, we need to work harder and execute like never before. Also, if we could get a little lucky, that’d be OK too. Will we? I have no idea, but we’re going to try!
All college football betting odds below provided via FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars.
Games of the Week
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State: I just wrote about how we’ve reached the time of year when we know so much more about teams, so why not lead this week’s column with the big game with a billion questions? OK, a billion is stretching it, but Penn State QB Drew Allar is a game-time decision. Ohio State’s starting left tackle might be you. I suspect Allar will start, even if he’s not 100%, and Penn State is leaving his status in the air to force Ohio State to prepare for both him and Beau Pribula. While I think Penn State can win this game if forced to rely on Pribula, it has a much better chance of doing so with Allar. I know that’s the kind of deep analysis you came here for.
Anyway, the biggest story of this game will be how Ohio State’s offensive line looks against Penn State’s front. To put it as kindly as possible, the Buckeyes’ offensive line looked bad against Nebraska. The Buckeyes couldn’t run the ball effectively at all, and Will Howard dealt with more pressure than he has all season. Well, Penn State’s defensive line is a lot better than Nebraska’s, and I have a tough time seeing a scenario where the Ohio State offensive line rallies enough to hold Abdul Carter and company at bay. I’m well aware of James Franklin’s history against Ohio State, and while it terrifies me, the fact is I have more confidence in the Penn State offense than Ohio State’s at the moment. I would have preferred to bet the under, but even with the questions, I don’t see a betting edge to either side of the total. So, all I can do is hold my nose and make the best choice with the information available to me.The Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-115) via Caesars
No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU: Pitt was one of the biggest surprises earlier this season, as the offense under coordinator Kade Bell and QB Eli Holstein were electric. Unfortunately for the Panthers, while they’re still unbeaten and very much alive in the ACC — as is SMU — the offense hasn’t been nearly as effective lately. In four nonconference games, the Panthers averaged 3.84 points per possession and had a success rate of 51.6%. In three conference games against North Carolina, Cal and Syracuse (a combined 3-9 in ACC play), those numbers have dropped to 2.09 points per possession and 40.2%. It seems opponents have adjusted.
While it was great to see their defense score three times on pick-sixes last week and force five total turnovers, it also led to a busy night. Pitt’s defense was on the field for 93 snaps last week, and now it’s on the road to face an SMU offense that isn’t opposed to moving quickly. I expect we’ll see a bit more tempo this week, considering how many snaps Pitt’s defense played in its last outing. Plus, you know, SMU is pretty good, and it’s at home to play what might be the biggest game the Mustangs have played in a long time. The Pick: SMU -7.5 (-105) via DraftKings
Lock of the Week
No. 1 Oregon at Michigan: I wrote earlier this week about how ruthless Oregon has been since the Ohio State win, and I don’t expect anything different against Michigan. Yes, Oregon has to travel to the Big House for this one, but we can’t pretend the 2024 version of Michigan is anything like the variety we’ve seen in recent seasons. The offense has been abysmal for most of the year, and while the defense is good, it’s not at the same championship level Wolverines fans have become accustomed to. We’ve seen teams with good quarterbacks and receivers expose the Michigan secondary, and here comes Dillon Gabriel and company.
Maybe Michigan muddies things up and keeps it close for a while, but unless Oregon gets loose with the football and turns it over multiple times, I can’t envision a scenario where the Wolverines are able to hang for a full 60 minutes. Keep in mind, Michigan was only able to score seven points against the Illinois team Oregon could’ve hung 50 on if it chose to keep its foot on the gas in the second half last week. I won’t be surprised if Oregon goes into Ann Arbor and beats the Wolverines by more than Texas did. The Pick: Oregon -14.5 (-115) via BetMGM
Civic Duty of the Week
Air Force at No. 21 Army: It’s a huge moment in our country. One where the entire population must decide on the choice they believe is not only best for themselves but for the nation as a whole. I’m talking, of course, about the service-academy-under trend. Since 2005, the under in games between service academies is 46-11-1 on sports betting apps, but it’s also 0-1 this year, and I’ve openly talked about my fears that the trend was on its last legs last season. The oddsmakers have caught on and lowered the totals. We’ve also seen both Army and Navy develop more explosive offenses as they’ve adapted to modern times themselves.
But I’m not ready to raise the white flag just yet. I’m doing my civic duty and betting the under in this game through at least the end of the season. We have this week’s contest, as well as what is setting up to be an epic Army-Navy Game at the end of the season. I hope we can leg out two more wins, but even if we don’t, it was an honor to have served you these bets over the years. The Pick: Under 41.5 (-105) via FanDuel
Underdog of the Week
USC at Washington: Perhaps you’ve noticed, but there is a trend with the USC Trojans in 2024. At home, USC is 3-1 and averaging 39.5 points per game. On the road, the Trojans are 0-3 and scoring 23 points per contest. USC has been the betting favorite in all three of those road games, too. Now, here we are again, with USC favored on the road against Washington.
The Huskies aren’t incredible this year, and they’ve lost two straight to fall to 4-4, but those losses came on the road against Iowa and Indiana. At home, they’ve been much better, particularly on defense. Given USC’s defensive struggles lately due to injuries, I expect the Huskies to lean on Jonah Coleman and the run game to get a win here. Still, I’ll happily take the points to be safe. The Pick: Washington +2.5 (-105) vs Fanatics
Over of the Week
Wisconsin at Iowa: We’re back on the Iowa Overs Train! We left it out of the column last week because Northwestern has been killing overs all year, but they couldn’t derail the Iowa Over Train. The Hawkeyes put up 40 points for the third time this season against the Wildcats, and more importantly, they made a QB switch to Brendan Sullivan. Sullivan will start again this week, and while I won’t pretend he’s going to reinvent Iowa’s passing offense, his presence does make Iowa’s strength — its rushing offense — even stronger.
Kaleb Johnson has been mostly unstoppable with a statue in Cade McNamara at QB. Now that defenses have to account for the legs of Sullivan, too, it’ll cause linebackers to hesitate on those outside zone runs just a little longer, which will open lanes more frequently for Johnson to exploit. As for Wisconsin, yes, the offense came back to earth last week against a good Penn State defense, and now it’s on the road against a good Iowa defense. Still, this unit has shown an ability to hit big plays and should be effective enough to help us reach the betting over here. We’re not asking for a lot! The Pick: Over 40.5 (-115) via DraftKings
|
Games of the Week |
1-1 |
10-8 |
-0.61 |
|
Lock of the Week |
1-0 |
5-4 |
0.58 |
|
Overall |
3-3 |
26-28 |
-4.61 |
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for five outright upsets in Week 10a of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.
