October ended up being a bit of a bust relative to very high expectations, so far as the overall box office was concerned. “Joker: Folie a Deux” bombed in spectacular fashion, starting things off on a low note. “Venom: The Last Dance” certainly didn’t bomb, but it also didn’t make nearly as much as the first two entries in that trilogy did either. Once again, though, horror was here to save the day as “Terrifier 3” shocked the industry with a killer overperformance, while “Smile 2” cemented Paramount’s budding new franchise. So, can a villain turn by Hugh Grant help keep the horror strong in November as A24’s “Heretic” hits theaters?
“Heretic” is currently eyeing a debut between $9 and $16 million when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. Its only directed competition is Lionsgate’s “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever.” Safe to say, these two films are not exactly gunning for the same audience. It’s a nice example of counter-programming. By then “Terrifier 3” and “Smile 2” should be running out of steam, clearing the way for A24’s latest to be the most attractive option for horror-seeking audiences. While the budget has not been disclosed, A24 rarely plays in the above $20 million range, so it would be difficult to imagine this one costing more than $15 million, give or take. That means, even on the low end, this would be a solid opening.
In terms of historical context, that would put it right in line with some of A24’s biggest horror hits ever, including last year’s “Talk to Me” which opened to $10 million and stayed strong, finishing with $92 million worldwide. “Heretic” could also best “Hereditary” on the top end of projections, with Ari Aster’s modern horror classic opening just north of $13 million in 2018 on its way to $80 million worldwide. In short, at least in the early going, “Heretic” is in very good company.
Can Heretic turn critical acclaim into box office dollars?
“Heretic” centers on two young missionaries whose faith is tested when they knock on the wrong door and are greeted by the unsuspecting yet wicked Mr. Reed (Hugh Grant), only to find themselves unwittingly caught up in his deadly game of cat-and-mouse. The film also stars Sophie Thatcher (“Yellowjackets”) and Chloe East (“The Fabelmans”) as the missionaries.
Behind the camera, “Heretic” hails from filmmaking duo Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, who are best known for co-writing “A Quiet Place.” They also directed the little-seen horror gem “Haunt” and last year’s Adam Driver dinosaur movie “65.”
On paper, “Heretic” has a lot going for it, including killer trailers and an unexpected straight-up villain turn from Grant (a man who audiences still remember best from rom-coms like “Notting Hill” and “Love Actually”). There’s also Thatcher, who has become an emerging star thanks to her work in stuff like “The Book of Boba Fett” and “The Boogeyman” in addition to “Yellowjackets.” At the very least, this looks like it could make up for the box office bust that was A24’s “The Front Room” back in September.
Thus far, Beck and Woods’ latest has been met with a very warm response from critics, boasting a stellar 94% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. If audiences agree, that could work in its favor for weeks to come, particularly since there isn’t a lot of mainstream horror hitting theaters throughout the rest of November. /Film’s Jacob Hall even called the film “a 10 out of 10 in the category of 8 out of 10 horror movies” in his review of “Heretic” out of this year’s Fantastic Fest.
“Heretic” opens in theaters on November 8, 2024.
