Bowl projections: Clemson joins CFP as last at-large team; Michigan in field after late rally vs. USC

Some teams just can’t stand success.

Memphis had just been elevated to the Group of Five position in last week’s bowl projections following a win at Florida State.  The Tigers dropped right back out this week after a 56-44 loss at Navy.  

Boise State is back in the projections as the Group of Five representative and No. 12 seed.  The Broncos had an easy time of it this week with FCS Portland State.  They still have some tough games left, including home tilts with Washington State and Oregon State and a big conference battle at UNLV on Oct. 25.  That could be a preview of the Mountain West Championship Game.

Kansas State rejoined the CFP projections last week as the No. 10 seed, but the Wildcats are also out of the picture for now after losing 38-9 at BYU.

Last week’s No. 11 seed Oklahoma State is out of this week’s projections, but you could hardly call its loss at home to Utah a major upset.  The Utes’ win jumped them over Miami for the No. 3 seed in this week’s CFP projections. The Hurricanes continue to roll, posting a 50-15 win at South Florida.   

Michigan climbed into the CFP projections this week with a 27-24 win over USC. The Wolverines won on a Kalel Mullings touchdown on fourth-and-2 play with 37 seconds left.  Michigan has a favorable schedule with eight home games on it including a visit from Oregon in November. The Wolverines’ first road game will be Oct. 5 at Washington.

Clemson is continuing to run up big numbers since its season-opening loss to Georgia. The Tigers pounded NC State 59-35 on Saturday and moved into the projections as the last at-large team.

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The Wolfpack was thought to be a contender in the ACC this season but in two games against ranked opposition so far this season, they have lost and given up a total of 110 points in doing so.

The other team to annihilate NC State was Tennessee. The Volunteers took to the road for the first time this season and beat Oklahoma 25-15 in the Sooners’ SEC debut. Tennessee is projected to finish 10-2 with losses to Alabama and at Georgia.  If that holds, Oklahoma may be the Vols’ second-best win of the season, but I only project them to finish third in the SEC. Tennessee could finish the season without a win over a team in the top half of the SEC.  

That is just another example of how important conference schedules are in these massive leagues. When teams can only play about half of their other conference teams in a season, you can get widely varied schedule strengths in league play.  The CFP Selection Committee is going to have their hands full trying to separate teams with similar records this season because of those widely different conference schedules.

We do not have a ton of big games this week, but one of the biggest is on tap. No. 1 seed Georgia travels to take on No. 6 seed Alabama in a game that will have a big impact on the SEC race and positioning for the top seeds in the CFP. Despite the Bulldogs’ recent dominance on the national scene, they have only beaten the Crimson Tide once in their last nine meetings. That came in the CFP Championship Game on Jan. 10, 2022.

Notre Dame, which only managed 42 points at home against two MAC teams in the last three weeks, gets Louisville at home this Saturday. The Cardinals will be the second of three teams in the most recent AP poll that the Fighting Irish will face this season.  In fact, they may not face another team that finishes above .500 before they end the season at USC.

Finally, a little bit under the radar, Illinois is at Penn State on Saturday. The Illini are 4-0 after a road upset of Nebraska on Friday. The Nittany Lions do not have a lot of chances for impressive wins this season with just two ranked teams left on their schedule after this. If the Illini prevail, they will have to be taken seriously as a contender for a place in the CFP.

Don’t see your team? Check out Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections.