MISSOULA, Mont. — The central clash in the pivotal Montana Senate race — and the fight for control of the Senate itself — was on full display Monday night as Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy faced off in a heated debate.
Like other Republican challengers around the country, Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, painted Tester as liberal cog in the national Democratic Party machine, unable to address concerns about high costs and border security in a state that former President Donald Trump has twice won easily.
Like other vulnerable Senate Democrats, Tester tried to make it personal — touting his bipartisan bona fides, highlighting his own connections to his red-leaning state and suggesting his opponent cannot be trusted.
“You got somebody like me,” Tester said in his closing statement, casting the race as a “stark” choice. “Somebody who’s been raised within 100 miles from where I was born, who will support public lands, support our health care system, support a woman’s right to choose.”
Sheehy used part of his closing statement to note that Tester voted twice to impeach Trump and opposed Trump’s Supreme Court nominees. “He voted with Biden and Harris every single time it mattered,” Sheehy said.
The Montana race could have national ramifications and ultimately decide which party controls the Senate.
Republicans need a net gain of just two seats to take control of the Senate, or one if Trump wins the White House, since the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the chamber.
The GOP effectively already has one seat in its column: the open West Virginia Senate race. Montana is the party’s next top target with Tester running for re-election in a state Trump won by 16 points in 2020. If Republicans defeat Tester, they’ll control the Senate, unless Democrats can conjure a long-shot upset of one of the GOP senators up for re-election in a Republican-leaning state.
Tester’s fate could depend on just how much Montana has changed in recent years.
A changing state
Sheehy and his Republican allies are betting that the Republican-leaning state will no longer back a Democrat for statewide office, especially with Trump on the ballot.
In his closing statement, Sheehy also noted that Tester, speaking in a 2019 interview on MSNBC, said of Trump, “You need to go back and punch him in the face.” Tester’s metaphorical remark illustrated his belief that Democrats from red states should not be afraid to publicly criticize the then-president — advice he’s not heeding himself five years on.
Sheehy’s attacks underscored the broader case Republicans have been making against Tester for months, running ads tying Tester to national Democrats that feature footage of Tester supporting Biden and defending the president’s mental fitness.
James Richmond, a 50-year-old IT consultant and voter in Helena, Mont., pointed to those comments in explaining why he is planning to support Sheehy, despite supporting Tester’s work for veterans.
“The line that broke for me is when [Tester] got up there and said, ‘Joe Biden’s great. He’s sharp as a tack, everything, he has no problems.’ And basically telling me, with my own eyeballs, what I see, I’m full of s–t,” Richmond told NBC News. “He went with the Democrats in Washington instead of standing up for the Montana values.”
Richmond backed Trump in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans believe Trump’s dominance in the state will boost Sheehy as well.
Montana has seen a surge in new residents in recent years. While Montana voters do not register by party, a National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee analysis of voters new to the state between 2018 elections through early 2023 found that around 40% were previously registered Republicans in other states, while 25% were registered Democrats.
That’s partly why some Republicans believe that attacks painting Sheehy as a wealthy-out-of-stater haven’t stuck.
An AARP poll conducted in late August found Sheehy leading Tester by 6 points, 55% to 49%. The spread was within the survey’s 3.5-point margin of error, but it also lines up with other publicly released surveys showing Sheehy with an advantage. Sheehy had a net-positive favorability rating, with 48% viewing him positively and 45% viewing him negatively. Tester, meanwhile, had a net-negative rating, with 43% viewing him favorably and 52% viewing him unfavorably.
In an interview with Fox News on the eve of the debate, Sheehy projected confidence while reflecting on recent polls. Sheehy said that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., “controls Jon Tester” and that “the people of Montana are waking up to this reality.”
“We’re going to win this thing,” said the optimistic political newcomer.
But Tester and his allies believe he can still peel off Trump supporters — the same AARP survey found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points, 56% to 41%. The question is if Tester can peel off enough to win.
Democratic optimism
Tester’s allies think so. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters, D-Mich., likened Tester to Sen. Susan Collins, the Maine Republican who won re-election in 2020 even as Trump lost her state by 9 points, noting both Maine and Montana with smaller populations.
“He’s been able to win tough, tough races,” Peters said of Tester at an event at the National Press Club last week. “So what he’s facing now is no different. And he is a great retail politician. Retail really matters, particularly in a small state. Montana is a really big state geographically, but small state from a population perspective.”
Peters said Democrats are committed to devoting resources to Montana “right to the very end.” So far, Tester and his Democratic allies have spent $105 million on ads in Montana, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. While Republicans have dropped $82 million on ads in the state. Tester has far outspent Sheehy, spending $43.2 million so far to Sheehy’s $11 million.
Tester does need to win over some Trump-supporting independents and Republicans, a tall order in a state Trump is expected to win easily. Tester appeared to try not to anger Trump supporters Monday night, referring to “party bosses” instead of Trump directly when chiding Sheehy and his fellow Republicans for opposing a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year.
Tester does have a history of bucking the state’s partisanship, winning more than 30,000 more votes than former President Barack Obama in 2012, outperforming him by 7 points to win a second term. But Republicans point to more recent results, and higher turnout, as signs of trouble for Tester.
In 2020, former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock won nearly 30,000 more votes than Biden as he ran for Senate, but he still lost to GOP Sen. Steve Daines by 10 percentage points.
Still, some Democrats believe Tester could defy the odds, buoyed by a robust ground game that also leverages his support among Native American voters.
Toward the end of Monday evening’s debate, Tester criticized Sheehy for his statements from 2023, when Sheehy used stereotypes about alcoholism while talking about Montana’s Crow tribe, according to audio recordings first reported by the Char-Koosta News.
“If you really feel this way about Native Americans, you ought to apologize for the statements you made about them,” Tester said. Sheehy responded by referencing his military background.
“The reality is, yeah, [it was] insensitive. I come from the military, as many of our tribal members do. We make insensitive jokes and probably off-color sometimes,” said Sheehy.
It wasn’t the first time Sheehy’s use of Native American stereotypes haunted him on Monday. During a rally he held with Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk just hours before the debate, two Native American protesters interrupted the campaign event.
“You are a racist! you are a racist!” one of the demonstrators chanted at Sheehy as he was forcibly removed from the University of Montana theater where the event was held Monday afternoon.
Democrats also believe an abortion ballot initiative could also boost Tester among voters who want to codify the right to an abortion in Montana. WinSenate, a Democratic outside group, recently began launching abortion-related ads in the state.
Sheehy said Monday that he would respect Montana voters’ decision, but he also appeared open to supporting federal action on abortion, saying he supports “common sense, life legislation,” which includes exceptions for rape, incest and protecting the life of the mother.
Tester cast the issue as “fundamental to who we are as Montanans” who do not want the federal government involved in medical decisions.
“The bottom line is this, if we want situations not to happen like just happened in Georgia with a woman dying because doctors were afraid to treat her because she was afraid to go get help, then here’s your man,” Tester said. “If you want somebody who’s going to make sure that women can make their own health care decisions, I’m your guy.”
Sarah Thaggard, a 34-year-old custodian and baker from Helena, told NBC News that she is supporting Tester out of concerns that Sheehy could support a national abortion ban.
“I just know that if Sheehy gets into office, it’s going to look really bad for women,” Thaggard said.
Montana Republican strategist Chuck Denowh, a former executive director of the state party, said in a phone interview the abortion ballot initiative is expected to boost Tester, but the Democrat still faces a tough road with turnout expected to be high in November.
“I don’t think it’s enough to tip the scales for Tester. I think it helps him a little bit to bring out a few more of his voters,” Denowh said. “But it looks, from the polling I’ve seen, it looks like Sheehy is in a very good position right now.”
Bridget Bowman reported from Washington, D.C.; Alex Tabet reported from Missoula, Montana.
