The revamped Iowa offense was a focal point all offseason as people across the globe wondered how first-year offensive coordinator Tim Lester would revitalize a unit that may have caused another global pandemic had it been allowed to continue any longer. Through four games, things are going pretty well. The Hawkeyes are 3-1 and averaging 32 points.
But what if I told you the answer to Iowa’s woes wasn’t Lester but somebody who was already in the building? A player so explosive that he should come with a warning label. A back so capable of getting out of a tight spot that it would make Andy Dufresne blush.
That’s right, I’m talking about Kaleb Johnson.
The fact of the matter is that while Iowa’s passing offense has improved in 2024, it’s more the result of having an incredibly low bar to clear. Last season, the Hawkeyes averaged 118.6 yards with a passing efficiency rating of 91.15. So far this season they’re averaging 147.5 yards with a rating of 120.16. Those numbers still rank 17th and 14th in the Big Ten.
But because of Johnson, it hasn’t mattered.
Through four games, Johnson has rushed for 685 yards and nine touchdowns. His 171.25 yards per game rank second nationally behind Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, and it’s not the byproduct of being a workhorse. Johnson certainly carries the ball a lot — his 82 carries are the third most in the country — but he’s averaging 8.35 yards per attempt anyway. His explosive rush rate of 20.73% ranks 19th among backs with at least 7.5 yards per carry, but it’s far more impressive than that 19th-place standing suggests.
Only two backs with a higher explosive rush rate than Johnson have had more than 50 carries. None have had more than 70. Again, Johnson is at 82. For visual learners, look at how Johnson compares when you chart both workload and explosiveness.
You see that red dot on the upper right with nobody in the vicinity? That’s Johnson. The other backs with the same level of explosiveness are far to his left due to fewer carries, while the players to his right cannot match his explosive rate.
He has truly been phenomenal for the Hawkeyes, and what makes it all more impressive is that, unlike a lot of backs, he’s doing this against stacked boxes. Iowa has run an average of 22.0 plays per game against defenses with at least eight players in the box. That’s nearly a third of the plays the Hawkeyes have run.
How’s Johnson performing against those eight-man fronts? Get ready to LOL, folks, because on 22 carries, Johnson has rushed for 229 yards and six touchdowns. That’s right, when defenses load the box, Johnson is averaging 10.4 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown 27.3% of the time.
For context, the national average for FBS running backs against the same fronts is 4.0 yards per carry and a 12.8% touchdown rate.
It’s hard to imagine Johnson will perform at the same rate as Iowa gets into the meat of Big Ten play, but I wouldn’t put it past him. Kaleb Johnson is awesome, and it’s time the world knew it.
USC’s silver lining
There’s no reason to be happy after losing a game. Losing sucks, and there’s nothing that anybody can say that’ll ever change that. However, just because losing sucks, that doesn’t mean there aren’t positive things to take away from a loss!
I watched USC open its season with a win over LSU in Las Vegas. It was a game where Miller Moss and the Trojans hung tough and made great plays to pick up the win. But, you know what? I was more impressed by what I saw from the Trojans in their loss to Michigan.
I am buying into the changes Lincoln Riley and that program are trying to instill. I watched Michigan run all over the Trojans in the first half, going for 199 yards before halftime. Think of how bad USC’s defense had looked in the first few years under Riley. But even then it had never allowed so many rushing yards in a half.
My takeaway then was: Here we go again; this team gets punched in the mouth and lays down. Then the second half began, and this team hadn’t laid down. It stood up and began punching back. The Trojans shut the Wolverines offense down for nearly the entire half until Kalel Mullings went Incredible Hulk on them as part of Michigan’s game-winning touchdown drive. The offense bounced back, too.
I thought the game was over again when Moss threw the pick-six. Nope, the Trojans responded with 14 points to take the lead in the Big House. They did not hold on. They lost, and losing sucks.
But this team can take a punch and throw them right back at you.
B1G Time stat of the week
B1G as hell.
Husker heartbreak
As I said, losing sucks, and Nebraska fans don’t need me to tell them that — not after the latest heartbreaker in Lincoln. Nebraska went into Friday night’s tilt against Illinois ready to celebrate the program’s resurgence and the 400th consecutive home sellout.
Every seat had a butt in it, but the only resurgence they saw was a resurgence of the same mistakes that have plagued the program for years. There were near misses on third down and misses on field goals. There were also 10 penalties for 89 yards, including plenty of stupid, unnecessary ones. This was nothing new. Two weeks prior, the Cornhuskers were called for 12 penalties for 105 yards against Colorado, but it didn’t matter because they were so much better than the Buffaloes.
This time, it cost them. Illinois won in overtime, dropping Nebraska’s record in one-score games to 5-22 since 2020 and marking their 25th consecutive loss against a ranked opponent. That’s the second-longest losing streak against ranked teams among the Power Four, trailing only Rutgers‘ 40-game losing streak.
Maybe they’ll both be ranked when they meet on Oct. 5 and the streak will end for one of them?
Regardless, there’s still plenty reason for optimism with the team moving forward. Dylan Raiola faced his toughest test so far and performed pretty well. While he was overwhelmed with pressure in overtime, he finished the game with 297 yards passing and three touchdowns. His lone interception resulted from an incredible defensive play on a great throw. He continues to show poise beyond his years, and as long as he’s around, this team can compete with anybody in the league.
But until they finally get over that hump, I can’t blame Nebraska fans for questioning if it’ll ever happen.
B1G Time meme of the week
What a weekend for Big Ten acclimation. USC loses its first Big Ten conference game despite allowing only 32 yards passing, and Washington goes from years of high-scoring shootouts to allowing a fiver.
Who knows what we’re in for when Oregon and UCLA square off this week? Both teams rush for 400 yards and one squeezes out a 3-2 win?
Listen, summer has ended, it’s almost October, and I don’t know that I’ve mentioned Ohio State in this column other than in passing. There just hasn’t been any reason to! Ohio State has dominated its nonconference schedule without giving us any hint what they’re going to look like against real competition. And I don’t say that in the “the Buckeyes have to prove it” sense.
I say it in the “Ohio State is so good that it runs a basic play and somebody goes untouched for 86 yards because they’re so much better than the team they’re playing” way.
Three hot takes
Blazing — Jackson Arnold will be Michigan’s QB next year: Listen, I wrote Saturday night that Michigan has found its offensive identity and needs to lean into it, but that’s a 2024-only proposition. Off the field, the Wolverines better be scrounging up all the NIL money they can find to hit the transfer portal hard this offseason and land a QB because the answer isn’t in the room right now.
Lo and behold, about an hour after I filed my story on the Wolverines, Oklahoma benched Jackson Arnold after a bad start against Tennessee. Arnold has not played well for the Sooners, but it remains my opinion that he’s not the biggest problem on that offense, and his benching leads me to believe there’s a strong chance he’ll be in the portal after the season. The amount of suitors lining up for him will support my opinion, and Michigan needs to be one of those suitors.
Will leave a scar if touched — Will Johnson will finish with more touchdowns than any Michigan receiver: On a related note, Will Johnson scored his second touchdown of the season against USC. That’s one more than any Michigan receiver currently has. The leading wide receiver on the Wolverines offense so far is Semaj Morgan, who has caught 12 passes for 62 yards and that lone touchdown.
Against USC, Morgan led the Wolverines in receptions with three for 6 yards. It was the third time in four games Morgan finished with multiple receptions and fewer than 10 yards. If you haven’t figured it out yet, the Michigan passing offense is giving strong “Iowa 2023” vibes.
The feels warm — Luke Altmyer will make an All-Big Ten team: I wrote about the performances of Altmyer and the Illini following their win over Nebraska, but I want to drive the point home a bit further. One of my biggest gripes with QB play at the college level is there are way too many examples of players who come in with prospect pedigree, play well early and never improve. QB development has been a myth far more than reality.
So when I see a guy improve his game from one season to the next like Altmyer has, I want to give them credit. Altmyer is not alone in this regard. Penn State’s Drew Allar and Rutgers’ Athan Kaliakmanis have both taken steps forward as well.
Grammatical error of the week
You know seeing this hurts Michigan alumni to the depth of their souls. The only thing worse would be realizing they got a World War II fact incorrect during that dinner party conversation.
I see you, Indiana and Rutgers
The Big Ten has six teams ranked in the top 20 of the AP Poll Top 25 this week, but it should have more. Indiana and Rutgers deserve to be ranked ahead of teams like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. I’m sorry I do not have an AP ballot, but if I did, both of you would be on it.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State: Penn State crushed Illinois in Champaign last season, winning 30-13. However, Illinois turned the ball over five times in the game, and it still took the Nittany Lions a long time to put the game away. As I said earlier, both Drew Allar and Luke Altmyer have improved this season, and while I’m skeptical Illinois goes on the road to beat a ranked opponent two weeks in a row, this game should be closer than expected. Illinois +17.5
Washington at Rutgers (Friday) — Rutgers -2.5
Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan — Michigan -9
Maryland at Indiana — Indiana -7
Nebraska at Purdue — Purdue +10
Wisconsin at No. 13 USC — USC -14
No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State — Ohio State -25
No. 8 Oregon at UCLA — UCLA +24
Last Week: 8-3
2024 Season: 31-19
