U.S. Flags on the front of the New York Stock Exchange hang behind the street signs making the corner of Wall and Broad Streets in the center of the financial district on October 24, 2024 in New York City.
J. David Ake | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Stock futures were moving higher Tuesday night as investors started to speculate that former President Donald Trump may have an edge in the presidential race.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 500 points, or about 1.2%. S&P 500 futures gained 1.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.1%.
Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar — which were expected by Wall Street to rise in the event of a Trump win — were also rallying on Tuesday night. Futures for the small cap benchmark Russell 2000, also a projected Trump beneficiary, jumped 3%.
Americans cast their votes across the country in the tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. NBC News is projecting both candidates will win several states where they were heavy favorites entering the night, including Maryland for Harris and Florida for Trump, while the key swing state of Georgia remains too close to call. Follow CNBC’s 2024 election live blog here.
Goldman Sachs predicts that a Trump win and Republican sweep of Congress would spark a 3% pop in the S&P 500. Even a Trump win and a divided Congress would cause about a 1.5% gain, the bank predicts. On the other hand, a Harris win with a divided Congress would cause a 1.5% drop in the S&P 500, the bank told its clients.
“I very much ascribe to that view that a Trump victory would be very good for stocks,” Jason Trennert, chairman at Strategas, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” “And I think a Harris victory would not be particularly good for risk assets.”
Trump’s agenda of tax cuts could give Corporate America a tangible boost, but steep tariffs and a potential global trade war under his presidency could cause more uncertainty and a resurgence of inflation. In a Harris administration, the risk of tighter regulations could bring more scrutiny to industries such as banks and health care, while Democrats’ support for clean energy could lift electric vehicle companies and solar firms.
Investors are also closely watching if the partisan makeup of the houses of Congress remains divided. A Republican or Democratic sweep could lead to more drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy.
The stock market staged a broad rally Tuesday before the election results were in with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, bringing the benchmark’s 2024 gains to more than 21%.
