Expert picks for Final Four: Who will win the 2025 NCAA Tournament and more bold predictions for this season

The long offseason of college basketball — all 210 days of it, but who’s counting?! — will finally give way to the start of the regular season next week.

It all begins on Monday.

So in your best John Stamos voice, I want you to say two magical words with me to ring in the special occasion: Haaaaave mercy. 

We made it. Hallelujah.

Before we dive headfirst into the season, though, our team of experts first put pen to paper on predictions for the season. Who will win it all? Which teams make the Final Four? What other bold predictions might be in store?

Everyone on our team last season correctly called Purdue making the Final Four, and one of us — not to brag, but it was me, I called it — also called UConn making it back to the Final Four.

This season we’ve got the goods again with a very wide variety of teams in the mix to get to the promised land, which includes Alabama, UConn, Houston and preseason No. 1 Kansas, among others.

Our full predictions are below.  

2025 Final Four predictions

Predicted 2025 NCAA Tournament champions 

Alabama

It’s rare that a team that features the best player in the country (hello, Mark Sears) also has arguably the deepest roster in the country. Nate Oats is building something special in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide reached their first Final Four in program history last season, and this roster will be even better (and deeper). Sears is the ultimate X-factor, but it’s hard not to get excited about newcomers Chris Youngblood, Aden Holloway, Clifford Omoruyi, Derrion Reid, Labaron Philon and more. Alabama is going to be cutting down the nets in six months — Cameron Salerno 

Houston

Though star point guard Jamal Shead has departed, nearly every other key contributor returns for a Houston program that won the Big 12 outright by two games during its first season in the conference. The Cougars are going to be old, physical and oozing with chemistry and connectedness under 11th-year coach Kelvin Sampson. Houston has made it to the Sweet 16 or deeper in five straight NCAA Tournaments and has been a No. 1 seed in consecutive Big Dances. The time for a championship breakthrough has arrived. — David Cobb (also predicted by Matt Norlander) 

UConn

Sure, a lot of talent walked out the door to the NBA at the end of last season, but the most important person spurned the NBA to stay in Storrs. Coach Danny Hurley turned down an offer to coach the Lakers to return to UConn and go for a third consecutive national title. That hasn’t happened since UCLA ran off seven straight from 1967-73. Veteran Alex Karaban is back, joined by transfer Aidan Mahaffey, the heart and soul of Saint Mary’s the last two seasons and freshman Liam McNeeley, who decommitted from Indiana prior to joining the Huskies. 

One interesting player to watch is senior center Samson Johnson, who has waited his turn behind Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clignan. Now he’ll get his shot, although he may share time with Michigan transfer Tarris Reed Jr. This pick is about the players, sure, but it’s also about the Midas touch that Hurley has enjoyed the last two seasons. — Jerry Palm (also predicted by Kyle Boone)

Kansas

Kevin McCullar Jr. got hurt, Nick Timberlake and Elmarko Jackson were disappointing, and that’s the best explanation for why Kansas finished tied for fifth in the Big 12 last season, which represented the Jayhawks’ worst finish in the league in 21 years under Bill Self. Depth became a huge problem. But it shouldn’t be this season thanks to the work Self and his staff did in the transfer portal, where they added two projected starters (AJ Storr from Wisconsin and Rylan Griffen from Alabama) and three other rotation pieces (Zeke Mayo from South Dakota State, Shakeel Moore from Mississippi State and David Coit from Northern Illinois). 

Combine that with three returning starters (Dajuan Harris, KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson) and two top-50 freshmen (Flory Bidunga and Rakease Passmore), and, again, depth shouldn’t be an issue this season. Simply put, I’m of the opinion KU has the best roster-construction for winning six straight games in a single-elimination national tournament. That’s why I believe, come April, Self will stand on top of a ladder once again, in the same building where he won his first national championship, and enter next season as the only active three-title coach in men’s college basketball. — Gary Parrish

Gonzaga 

Gonzaga fits the template of the type of team I want to invest in. If you can’t score, you have no shot in this new era of basketball where offense wins championships. Gonzaga, armed with the best pick-and-roll offense in the country, can certainly score. Plus, I want to bet on the teams with retention and clear role definition. Point guard Ryan Nembhard, big man Graham Ike and shooting guard Nolan Hickman are tried and true veterans who should make life so much easier for newcomers like Michael Ajayi and Khalif Battle to embrace their new roles. Plus, the Zags are old. Six players in the eight-man rotation will be seniors. Can you score? Check. Do you have a ton of retention? Check. Are you old? Check. It’s banner-hunting time for the Zags. — Isaac Trotter

Predicted Final Four teams

Duke

In Jon Scheyer’s first season at the helm of his alma mater, Duke reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Last season, Duke took another step and reached the Elite Eight before falling to NC State. This is the year where the Blue Devils break through and get back to the Final Four because of the addition of superstar freshman Cooper Flagg. But Duke isn’t just a one-trick pony. Caleb Foster is the lone member of Duke’s star-studded 2023 recruiting class still with the program, and he’s due for a breakout season. Duke has the perfect blend of experience and new star power to get back to the final weekend of the college basketball season. — Salerno (also predicted by Parrish, Boone and Palm)

Arizona 

Tommy Lloyd has won 88 games in three seasons as a head coach, all at Arizona, all with a style that’s NBA-esque and eminently watchable. The Wildcats haven’t broken through in a big way in the NCAAs yet (two Sweet 16s and a first round upset loss with a top-two seed in the past three tournaments), but I will throw a dart and say the breakthrough happens in 2025. Be it with a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed, I like the personnel and the scheme. I don’t think the Big 12 wears down Arizona — just the opposite. Lloyd has a preseason All-American. Caleb Love, and a deep lineup of shot-makers, good defenders and high-level athletes. Jaden Bradley will be one of the breakout guys in the sport. Oakland‘s Trey Townsend was a great portal get. 

Freshman Carter Bryant is one of the overlooked difference-makers nationally of all first-year guys. Beyond that, Motijus Krivas and KJ Lewis are also suiting up in Tucson and will have a few standout nights of their own. This is going to be a really good team. Arizona ranked top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency last season. If it can even be of top-20 variety, and there’s little reason to suggest it won’t, then this will be a Final Four-caliber group. The drought ends. Arizona makes the Final Four for the first time since 2001. — Norlander

Illinois 

I’m the only one on staff who picked Illinois to win the Big Ten this season so this is a continuation of yours truly putting my money where my mouth is. Brad Underwood’s team is quietly flying beneath the radar heading into the season — they were picked fourth in the preseason poll and in our expert poll at CBS Sports — but the construction of this team makes me believe it will be good and only get markedly better as the season goes on.

The thesis here in picking Illinois to make the Final Four is rooted almost entirely in the belief I have in freshman international addition Kasparas Jakucionis, whose legend around Champaign has grown from whispers, to murmurs to outright screams. I don’t know how to say this without overselling my case, but here goes: He’s tearing up the preseason in a way that has fundamentally changed the outlook for the team this season. Excitement about him and what his presence can mean for the team is palpable. 

There are other quality pieces around him, too. This is a staff that has consistently been excellent on offense and historically has found ways to push the right buttons on defense with adjustments as necessary. That will be key — Underwood has already expressed angst about his defense before the season has even officially started — but with a star in Jakucionis and an offense that will be tough to stop I believe in the Illini pushing to the Final Four as a Tier One representative out of the Big Ten. — Boone

Iowa State 

Iowa State returns four double-digit scorers from a Sweet 16 team that earned a No. 2 seed for the NCAA Tournament after finishing second in the Big 12. The Cyclones have improved each season under fourth-year coach T.J. Otzelberger and are now a veteran-laden program with a strong defensive identity and proven offensive options. Put it all together and you have the makings of a historic breakthrough for the Cyclones. — Cobb

UCLA 

UCLA is back. After having the worst season of his tenure at the school, this is the year the Bruins get back to the Final Four. This is one of Cronin’s deepest rosters he’s assembled, and it all starts with the backcourt of Dylan Andrews and Sebastian Mack. USC transfer Kobe Johnson is a legit candidate to win Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and he should help anchor that unit that will be among the best in the conference. UCLA is more of a wild card pick, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were one of the last four teams left standing. — Salerno

Baylor

I’m fully on the Baylor bandwagon. The Bears were my pick to win the Big 12, so it’s only appropriate to double down and pick them to reach the Final Four. Similar to Duke, Baylor has a unique blend of experience and youth. Scott Drew added former Duke guard Jeremy Roach and Miami big man Norchad Omier via the transfer portal and also welcomes VJ Edgecombe, a projected top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, to the program. The Big 12 will be a gauntlet, and I feel good about Baylor being the last team standing from the Big 12.  — Salerno

Tennessee

Tennessee’s floor is so high because it has three elite defenders at all three levels. Zakai Zeigler is a nasty point-of-attack defender. Jahmai Mashack is a pest for big wings. Felix Okpara is a ridiculous shot-blocker to anchor this backline. Tennessee’s offensive process is also going to be sharp. The Vols have built a roster that should take plenty of 3-pointers, and they’ll crash the offensive glass at a high rate to win the shot-volume game. Oh, hey, another team I’m betting on that has five upperclassmen in the starting lineup and another senior operating as the sixth man. Sensing a theme? Keep an eye on emerging sophomore Cameron Carr. If he pops, Tennessee has more than enough firepower to reel off four in a row in March. — Trotter

Bold predictions

Flagg will lead Duke to Final Four, become youngest Wooden Award winner

I fully understand that the sport has gotten older — and that teams headlined by freshmen are largely operating at a disadvantage. I get it. But that doesn’t mean a freshman-led team can’t still be great, especially if the freshman leading the team is terrific, and such should be the case this season at Duke. Could it be a bumpy ride? Sure. I’m not necessarily expecting the Blue Devils to be elite right from the jump like the 2019 Duke team led by Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett was elite right from the jump. They could easily lose two or even three times in November. But, eventually, I think things will click, primarily because I think five-star freshman Cooper Flagg will emerge as the best all-around player in the country, and that’s why I have the Blue Devils in the Final Four while Flagg, still just 17 years old, becomes the youngest Wooden Award winner in history. — Parrish

All seeds at the Final Four will be No. 4 or better

This doesn’t sound like a bold prediction to you? You haven’t been keeping notes, then. Every NCAA Tournament since 2013 has had a No. 5 seed or worse reach the Four. You probably almost never pick a team seeded that low to win four games, but sure enough it keeps on happening. I’ll say San Antonio — the site of the 2008 Final Four, the only one to feature all No. 1 seeds in men’s NCAA history — breaks the trend. For kicks, I’ll say we get a No. 1, two No. 2s and a No. 4. — Norlander

UConn pulls off the three-peat

Dan Hurley and UConn can do this season what no program has done since the great John Wooden-coached UCLA teams of the 1960s and 70s did: three-peat. And my bold (but also maybe not so bold?) prediction is that they get it done.

Coming off consecutive national titles and consecutive dominant postseason runs, UConn has a big mountain to climb as it looks to replace Donovan Clingan (the No. 8 shot-blocker in college last season who became the No. 7 pick in the NBA Draft), Stephon Castle (the swiss-army knife weapon of last year’s team who became the No. 4 pick in the NBA Draft) and the duo of Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer — the team’s first and second-leading scorers. Contending against stacked teams at Kansas and Alabama — who are ahead of the Huskies in the preseason rankings — will also be a real challenge. I acknowledge as much.

But in Hurley I trust to get his team coached up to eventually push to the promised land again. A three-peat sounds unlikely but it’s not as improbable as it sounds, either. Alex Karaban, Hassan Diarra, Samson Johnson, Solo Ball and Jaylin Stewart are all back. Aidan Mahaney and Tarris Reed Jr. will be key transfer adds. And a recruiting class led by five-star Liam McNeeley might be enough to ensure a small, but recoverable, drop-off from last year’s super team. 

UConn has been the class of college basketball for two years running now. It has the best coach in the sport. Its talent is comparable to the best teams in the sport again. And with Hurley operating on an even playing field, all I’m saying is …. I’m not betting against  Hurley. — Boone

Kentucky wins the breakup

Arkansas finished fourth in the SEC preseason poll while Kentucky finished eighth. But by the end of John Calipari’s first season coaching the Razorbacks, it will be clear UK won the breakup. First-year Kentucky coach Mark Pope assembled a veteran roster full of players with well-defined skill sets and roles, which should help make for a successful debut campaign. Arkansas has more sheer talent, but that means expectations will be difficult to meet for a coach who must prove he still has the championship touch. — Cobb

Big Ten title drought could come to an end

By now, you know the dreaded Big Ten stat that floats around this time of year. The last time a team from the Big Ten (Michigan State) won a national title was 2000. Purdue came one game close to ending that drought this past spring but lost to the juggernaut that is UConn.

I picked UCLA to reach the final weekend of the college basketball season because coach Mick Cronin has a roster capable of making a deep tournament run. The Big Ten is wide open, so there’s a strong possibility that someone other than UCLA will represent the conference and go to the Final Four (and win a title).

So, who could this mystery team be? Illinois? Indiana? Purdue? I guess we will have to find out. — Salerno

Alabama basketball tops Tide’s football team 

Alabama basketball matched Alabama football last season in making it to the semifinals of their respective tournaments, although the football team was gifted its berth.  This year, the basketball team will separate itself from the football team and go further.  The College Football Playoff is up to 12 teams this season, so nobody will be handed a semifinal spot anymore and as of this writing, the Crimson Tide is no guarantee to even make the newly expanded 12-team field.  

Even if it does, it would do well to get to the heights expected for Alabama basketball.  That Crimson Tide team is a national title contender and my pick to finish second behind the two-time defending champion UConn Huskies.  Alabama Football may have to upset a team or two to match that.  Maybe Alabama will become a basketball school.  I know – that’s heresy. — Palm

The best two offenses in college basketball will meet for title

Legendary Tennessee coach Pat Summit’s quote will always resonate: “Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships.” Well, defense always travels, but last year was the best offensive season in the history of the sport. The best two offenses, UConn and Alabama, could’ve clashed in the National Championship game but settled for an electric Final Four dual. This time, we’ll get the best two bucket-getting teams on that first Monday in March for the title because if you can’t score, you can’t win six straight. — Trotter