NEW DELHI: Gold is expected to deliver 15-18% return in the new Samvat year 2081, driven by positive economic factors and safe-haven demand, analysts said. Diwali marks the start of the Vikram Samvat year, the new year according to one of the Hindu calendars that is followed mainly by the Gujarati trading community. Samvat year 2081 started on Nov 1.
Gold outperformed equity benchmarks in Samvat 2080, delivering over 30% returns compared to 25% from Nifty.
The outlook for gold remains positive, though investors may see moderate gains amid possible shifts in global market factors, analysts added.
“We expect a base performance of 10% with potential for 15-18% gains if the import duty cut continues to drive buying momentum. However, any hike in import duties could push gold’s performance beyond 15%. A stable interest rate environment could also support a gradual upward trend,” Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities said. The strong performance in the previous Samvat year was driven by geopolitical tensions, along with the interest rate cycle turning in major economies, making gold a reliable safe-haven investment, Trivedi said.
Geopolitical conflicts, shifts in monetary policy of global economies, and industrial demand have boosted the yellow metal to touch record highs of Rs 82,400 per 10gm in the national capital on Thursday. With this, the precious metal price has recorded a 35% surge since Oct 29 last year when it was at Rs 61,200 per 10gm. In overseas markets, the precious metal saw gains of up to 40% driven by central banks’ appetite for the precious metal amid geopolitical risks and prospects of future interest rate cuts.
