Bhupinder Hooda was given a free hand as far as the Congress campaign was concerned
New Delhi:
Around 9 am, one hour after the counting of votes for Haryana Assembly polls began, the Congress had surged far ahead of the BJP. Jalebis were being distributed in the Congress headquarters in Delhi, dhols were out and the BJP office was deserted. An hour later, the tables had turned and the BJP was back in the game. Two hours later, the BJP appears to be headed for its biggest win in Haryana, defying exit poll predictions by a massive margin. The BJP headquarters is now abuzz as laddoos are prepared to celebrate the party’s win. Congress leaders are still hoping against hope for a turnaround in its poll fortunes. Several rounds of counting are still left, but the picture is unlikely to change a lot.
Here are the five factors that contributed to the Congress setback
Congress Infighting: The Congress won 31 seats in Haryana in the 2019 election. If the current numbers hold, the party has not improved its performance substantially to enable its return to power.
One major factor behind this is the party’s infighting and its top leaders squabbling for power. Much before the election and its results, Congress leaders had maintained that a poll victory was a foregone conclusion and had started throwing their hats in the ring for the Chief Minister post. A power tussle between Congress veteran Bhupinder Singh Hooda and senior leader Kumari Selja was out in the open, with the latter stressing that she is in the Chief Minister race.
While the party did try to show a united front in the run-up to the election, it was crystal clear that the main Opposition is a divided house. Mr Hooda was given a free hand in the selection of candidates and on decisions regarding any alliances. Results show this did not work.
Regional Forces, Independents Play Spoilsport: While the Congress is ahead of the BJP in the vote share, the trends show it has not been very successful in converting this to seats. In several seats, the margin is very low, indicating that regional parties and Independents ate into the anti-incumbency votes in Haryana, benefiting the BJP.
The regional parties, however, have failed to score in this election. The INLD and the BSP currently lead in one seat each and four Independents are ahead.
Anti-Jat Consolidation: While the Congress, led by Mr Hooda, focused on the consolidation of Jat votes, this appears to have led to a counter-consolidation of non-Jat votes in favour of the BJP. In the run-up to the election, NDTV had repeatedly heard a term – Jatshahi (meaning supremacy of Jats). With a Congress victory pointing to a return of the influential community’s heft in the state, the other communities appear to have voted overwhelmingly in favour of the ruling party.
BJP’s Backroom Work: While poll analysts had predicted that the BJP is set to lose power in Haryana, it was silent work on the ground that turned the tide in the ruling party’s favour. Union minister and BJP leader Dharmendra Pradhan was tasked with the party’s campaign for the tough election, and as the trends indicate, he has delivered in style. The BJP’s election machinery has yet again snatched victory from Congress’s jaws. Congress spokesperson Ajoy Kumar told NDTV that the party would definitely need to introspect why it could not convert public support into votes.
BJP’s Urban Supremacy: Over the past decade, the BJP has consolidated support in Haryana’s urban areas, such as Gurgaon and Faridabad. The Congress had expected to sweep the rural areas, but this does not appear to have happened as much as it would have liked. In Gurgaon, Faridabad and Ballabhgarh, the BJP is leading at this point.
