Our marathon is nearly complete with the sprint right around the proverbial corner. The 2024 Major League Baseball regular season has just seven days remaining before we get into the postseason. Given the way the regular season has gone — with no truly dominant teams and a playoff field with many very talented yet flawed ballclubs — we should be in store for an October to remember.
Before we get there, though, I have some business. Traditionally here in the Official Power Rankings, this is my accountability week. That is, I look back at my preseason predictions and give myself props for the good picks in addition to scolding myself for the bad ones. I don’t want to go too in depth on any good ones (Phillies over Orioles World Series is still on the table!) and there are plenty of bad (you can see my predictions here and my pre-spring power rankings here if you wish), but this time around I really want to focus on two teams in particular.
On a team level, I missed very badly on two clubs this season and it was both of the Central division champions.
I picked the Brewers to finish last in the NL Central.
(Pause for laughter)
Slightly in my defense, I said multiple times that the NL Central was the most wide-open division in baseball and that none of the five teams winning it would surprise me. Hopefully that stance is illustrated with my placement of the Brewers 19th in power rankings.
That’s still bad, though, obviously.
The Brewers have been an amazing story this season. They battled injury adversity to major players throughout the season, including Brandon Woodruff from the rotation to start and All-Star closer Devin Williams in spring training. They traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles and lost their manager to the Cubs. Christian Yelich was amazing the first half and went down shortly after the All-Star break.
No matter. This team exemplifies “next man up.” Rookie Jackson Chourio picked up the slack when Yelich went down, following suit from so many other teammates all season. More than a handful of other players deserve special mention, but we’ll just throw out a few names: William Contreras, Brice Turang, Willy Adames, Joey Ortiz.
Quick summary: Impeccable work, Brewers. Atrocious work, Matt.
I had the Guardians finishing fourth in the AL Central and slotted them 24th in pre-spring power rankings. Since I’m big on accountability, I can’t stop there. Not in good faith. I wrote multiple times early in the season that they’d cool off. I finally said I was going to stop doubting them, but then they went into a slump, which included their bad month of August. And when tasked with making playoff predictions at the start of September, I had the Guardians falling down to third place.
And they got hot again.
I made a habit of being wrong about this team and while I’m happy to shoulder some of the blame — again, I’m big on holding myself to account — the main takeaway here is to give the Guardians credit.
They had to replace future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona. They lost Shane Bieber from an already thin rotation. Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen didn’t work out in the rotation.
It didn’t matter.
The Guardians’ bullpen has been the best in baseball by a mile all season. Credit the members of the pitching staff doing that excellent work — especially Cy Young candidate Emmanuel Clase — but also new manager Stephen Vogt. On the position-player side, José Ramírez remains one of the best and most underrated all-around players in baseball. Josh Naylor is a power anchor in the middle of the lineup while Steven Kwan was one of the league’s best table-setters for several months. How about utility man David Fry?
And so many more. Like the Brewers, the Guardians have been such a great team this season that the group collectively deserves high praise.
Quick summary: The Guardians rule, Matt drools.
Feel free to find me on social media and tell me how stupid I am for these and any other predictions. To any such comments, the upcoming playoffs and the following rankings, I have but one phrase: Bring it on.
Biggest Movers
|
Rk |
Teams |
Chg |
Rcrd |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
|
Carlos Rodón now has a 1.93 ERA in four September starts, a very pleasant trend for the Yankees as they zero in on the AL East crown. | 1 | 92-64 |
2 |
|
So many aspects of Shohei Ohtani’s offensive stats this season are absurd, but how about this one? Heading into the 4th of July, Ohtani had 16 stolen bases in 84 games. He’s stolen 39 in 69 since. | 2 | 93-63 |
3 |
|
The last time the Phillies won the NL East was 2011. They were bounced from the NLDS by a wild card and their first baseman tore his Achilles on the last play. I’ll go out on a limb and say this year won’t yield the same level of disaster. | 2 | 92-64 |
4 |
|
Not only do they have a shot at the NL West title, the Padres could actually end up with the best record in baseball. They were 50-50 on July 19. | 2 | 90-66 |
5 |
|
The White Sox have been so awful this season that they’ve tilted the records of their fellow AL Central teams and made them look better than they actually are, right? Well, that might apply to the others, but the Guardians actually went 8-5 against the White Sox. Their record isn’t skewed. | — | 90-67 |
6 |
|
Corbin Carroll has 14 triples this season, tying Tony Womack (2000) for the single-season franchise record. | 1 | 87-69 |
7 |
|
The Brewers are one of five teams to never win the World Series. The list was seven teams heading into 2019 and the Nationals and Rangers have come off the board since then. | 4 | 89-67 |
8 |
|
How about the amazing early work we’ve seen from Luisangel Acuña at the bottom of the order. The Mets just keep getting more dangerous. | 3 | 87-69 |
9 |
|
I have seen a lot of Astros fans talking trash about the Rangers’ elimination from playoff contention and I can’t tell you how much I love this. The Texas “rivalry” was forced and had no juice at all for years. With the teams having won the last two World Series now and that contentious 2023 ALCS, it is a legitimate top-shelf rivalry now. | — | 85-71 |
10 |
|
Remember in 2022 when the first-place Mets visited Atlanta in the final week of the season and the Braves swept them? This time around it isn’t the division, but the Braves have a chance to repeat history starting on Tuesday. | 2 | 85-71 |
11 |
|
What more can even be said? After being sellers at the trade deadline, it’s realistic for the Tigers to grab the fifth seed in the AL. That would likely mean avoiding the Astros and playing the Orioles. And, at this point, getting to play the Orioles feels like a gift. | 2 | 82-74 |
12 |
|
Through June 20, the Orioles were on pace to win 107 games this season. They might not even get to 90. | 4 | 86-70 |
13 |
|
Less than a month ago, the Royals hadn’t lost more than four consecutive games all season. They’ve now topped that number twice, rather emphatically. It’s difficult to have any confidence in a deep playoff run right now, but there’s still time to get things back on track. | 3 | 82-74 |
14 |
|
This will be absolutely no consolation for Mariners fans if they miss the playoffs — nor should it be — but this looks like the fourth-straight winning Seattle season. That hasn’t happened since 2000-03. | — | 80-76 |
15 |
|
Six games against the Marlins and Orioles at home could be a soft landing for the Twins. They could still make this season special. You never know, right? Yes, I feel you, Twins fans. I was rolling my eyes, too. | — | 81-75 |
16 |
|
It doesn’t look like the Cubs will have obvious openings on the position-player side for next season’s lineup as they head to the offseason, but the current group just isn’t good enough. That means some tough choices need to be made by Jed Hoyer. | — | 80-76 |
17 |
|
This really could go down to the wire: The Cardinals haven’t had back-to-back losing seasons since 1994-95. | 1 | 79-77 |
18 |
|
Kenley Jansen is now up to 447 career saves. That puts him 31 away from Lee Smith for third all-time. Maybe he can be the third ever to 500 after Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman? | 1 | 78-78 |
19 |
|
It’s hard telling how the Rays use him next season, but Drew Rasmussen, since returning from elbow surgery, has been outstanding in 1-2 inning spurts, whether as an opener, middle reliever or closer. | 2 | 78-78 |
20 |
|
Logan Webb has been one of baseball’s biggest workhorses again, but this time around he’s stumbled down the stretch. He has a 6.58 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his last five starts. | 2 | 77-79 |
21 |
|
So much went wrong this season, especially with injuries. Matt McLain didn’t play a single game while Christian Encarnacion-Strand got just 123 plate appearances, for example. Hunter Greene and Elly De La Cruz, though, showed they are foundational talents for this organization. | 2 | 76-81 |
22 |
|
A lot of stuff went south during this hangover of a season and a good number of those things will turn around next year. is the season we’ve seen from Adolis García cause for concern, though? He’s not in his 20s or anything. He’s 31. | 2 | 74-82 |
23 |
|
Anyone else wondering how this season would have gone if Shohei Ohtani actually did sign with the Blue Jays? No? Just me? | 3 | 73-83 |
24 |
|
There were several glimpses of hope, but the Pirates appear headed for another last-place finish in the NL Central. In the 31 years of the division’s existence, the Pirates have finished last 12 times. This season would be 13. | 1 | 73-83 |
25 |
|
The CJ Abrams situation is certainly concerning, but it could also just be a one-off. No need to do anything rash just yet. | — | 69-87 |
26 |
|
Well, we’re here. The A’s have just three games left in Oakland before the move. The final home game is Thursday. | — | 67-89 |
27 |
|
The Angels are the only team in MLB history to never have a 100-loss season. They have avoided it once again. | — | 63-93 |
28 |
|
The Rockies went 30 years without a 100-loss season. They are about to now make it two straight at the century mark. | — | 60-96 |
29 |
|
How has this year gone? Well, here’s one way of putting it: The team leader in WAR is Tanner Scott. That would be a reliever who was traded on July 30. | — | 57-99 |
30 |
|
Finally, mercifully, this is almost over. | — | 36-120 |
