Patriots vs. Titans isn‘t the sexiest matchup. OK, it‘s the least-sexy game on the NFL Week 9 slate. But it’s still football, and as Anna Kendrick sings: “You‘re gonna miss me when I’m gone.”
Sorry, it might be only #girldads that get that reference. The point is, we‘re gonna be pining for a game like Patriots vs. Titans during the dead portion of the sports calendar, so let’s embrace it.
This is an interesting game to break down from an NFL betting perspective. The QB situations have been unclear most of the week.
Finally, there is a bit of clarity now that Drake Maye (concussion) has been cleared to start (thus, removing the ‘hook’ from this 3-point spread). Mason Rudolph will reportedly start for the Titans.
Then there is the fact that the Patriots are riding high after an upset of the Jets, whereas the Titans are coming off an embarrassing 52-14 loss to Detroit.
Do you take the 3 points with the Pats in what amounts to a coin-flip game? Or is this line a trap? Is Under 38 total points the best – and only play? Let’s get into my Patriots vs. Titans predictions and best bets for NFL Week 9.
Patriots vs. Titans predictions and best bets for NFL Week 9
- Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD: +165 at FanDuel (1 unit)
- Titans -1.5 2nd half: -105 at FanDuel (.50 unit)
- Patriots D/ST anytime TD: +500 at Fanatics (.25 unit)
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The total is extremely low, which isn’t ideal for anytime TD betting. If you have a more pessimistic take on this game, I also have some Patriots vs. Titans same game parlays picks you might be interested in.
While anytime TD bets are fun, you normally shouldn‘t put more than, “Beer or pizza money” on them, to quote my former CBS colleague and host of the Audacity podcast “You Better You Bet,” Nick Kostos.
I like Stevenson to score (for a little more than beer money) against a Titans‘ defense that ranks 24th in red-zone efficiency (Tennessee allows a TD on 61.9% of opponents’ red-zone trips).
Stevenson will be relied upon heavily because the Patriots will want to protect Drake Maye, who suffered a concussion last week, from further harm.
FanDuel (+165) has the best odds on a Stevenson anytime TD (he’s +110 at DraftKings and +155 at Caesars).
My second Patriots vs. Titans bet is a wager based on hoping for positive regression. The Titans have been shut out in the second half in each of the past two games. They’ve been outscored 44-0 in the final two quarters in that span.
A closer inspection shows those two losses came against very good teams: Buffalo and Detroit. The latter was an anomaly: Detroit had a 90-yard punt return for a TD in the second half last week. You don’t see that very often. The Patriots are not the Bills, nor are they the Lions. New England is 26th in the NFL in second-half scoring (8.0 ppg).
Finally, let‘s go with an anytime TD from the Patriots’ defense (+500 at Fanatics). Why? The Titans have the second-most turnovers in the NFL (16).
Mason Rudolph (2 TDs, 3 INTs, 1 fumble lost) doesn‘t inspire much more confidence than Will Levis. Another thing working in my favor with this bet is the Titans’ offensive line is 8th-worst in terms of allowing pressure (39.5% of drop backs), per Pro Football Focus.
Patriots vs. Titans moneyline odds analysis
Why the Titans can win as the favorite
Best odds: -172 at FanDuel
The Titans have the best defense in the NFL in terms of yards per game (251.6). They are third-worst in scoring defense (28.0 ppg), however, because turnovers by the offense keep putting the defense in bad situations. That might not be a factor against a Patriots’ defense that is 22nd in takeaways (7).
Mason Rudolph starting gives the Titans a better chance to win. The other way Tennessee can win is by relying on Tony Pollard and Julius Chestnut (Tyjae Spears is out) to churn out yards against a Patriots’ defense that struggles to stop the run (133.1 ypg).
The Titans’ NFL-best pass defense (151.6 ypg) shouldn’t have much trouble shutting down a mediocre New England receiving corps.
Why the Patriots can win as the underdog
Best odds: +152 at Caesars
The Patriots can win this game if they can get pressure on either Levis or Rudolph the way other teams have. Even if they don’t get much pressure, they have a decent shot at limiting the second-worst third down offense in the NFL.
Offensively, the Patriots will need Stevenson to have a big day, considering how good the Titans are against the pass. If that happens, the Pats could exploit what I already discussed is a very bad red-zone defense.
That said, the Patriots will need their outside playmakers like DeMario Douglas to step up in order to sustain drives. The Titans have allowed the third-fewest yards to opposing tight ends.
Tennessee has also allowed just two TDs to tight ends, which ranks third-best in the NFL in that regard. I don‘t expect much production from Hunter Henry, despite how good he’s been with Maye under center.
