One of baseball’s elite closers, Devin Williams, took the mound for the Brewers with a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning of National League Wild Card Game 3 Thursday against the New York Mets.
It was easy to imagine Brewers first baseman Rhys Hoskjns – a former long-time Phillie – being introduced to a large ovation Saturday before Game 1 of the National League Division Series at Citizens Bank Park.
It was easy to start going back through the six games the Phillies and Brewers played this year, including a Phillies sweep of three low-scoring games in Philadelphia in June, for background on how the series might play out.
But the Mets had different ideas and four batters later, Pete Alonso hit one of the most dramatic home runs in postseason history when he took a 3-1 offering the other way for a go-ahead three-run homer. The Mets – who rallied in the ninth Monday in a make-up doubleheader in Atlanta to clinch a postseason berth – are headed to Philadelphia Saturday for a National League East best-of-5 showdown after the come-from-behind 4-2 win.
The first two games will be in Philadelphia Saturday and Sunday before the series moves to Citi Field for Games 3 and 4, the last of necessary, on Tuesday and Wednesday. If there is a need for a winner-take-all Game 5 it will be at Citizans Bank Park next Friday.
Don’t be surprised if there is a Game 5. These teams are evenly-matched rivals with a lot of history – including the Phillies running the Mets down for division-title wins in 2007 and 2008 – but this will be their first-ever postseason series.
The teams played 13 times this season. The Phillies won the season series, 7-6 – though three of those Mets wins came when Taijuan Walker started for the Phillies, and he will be nowhere near a postseason mound.
They played seven times in September. The Phillies won two of three in Citizens Bank Park, while the Mets took three of four in Citi Field, the last two when the Phillies could have clinched the National League East. The Phillies won the division the next day.
What factors will fatigue and the bye play in the series?
The Mets haven’t been home since Sept. 22 when they finished off their last regular-season series against the Phillies and will start this round with two games in Philadelphia.
They’ve played five games since the Phillies played their last one. Some of the Mets’ relievers – including Edwin Diaz and Phil Maton – have to be on fumes. Probable NLDS Game 1 starter David Peterson was used to close out Game 3 of the wild-card round.
However, the Braves and Dodgers both lost in the NLDS the last two years with the bye – Atlanta falling to the Phillies twice – and Baltimore was swept out of last year’s ALDS as the No. 1 seed in 2023.
Three of the four World Series teams the last two years since the top two seeds earned the right to sit out have not been given a bye, so there’s something to be said for staying in a routine. The Phillies played an eight-inning intra-squad game Wednesday that ended in a 5-5 tie to stay sharp.
Team of destiny?
The run the Mets are on has been pretty amazin’.
They rallied from a three-run deficit in the eighth inning in Game 161 in Atlanta to score six runs, only to see the lead disappear in the bottom of the inning. But Francisco Lindor’s two-run homer in the top of the ninth gave the Mets a 7-6 win and sent them to the postseason.
Then on Thursday, trailing 2-0 in the ninth inning against one of the best closers in baseball, the Mets rallied to win again.
The Mets are giving off 2022 Phillies vibes. That Phillies team reached the World Series despite playing their last 10 games of the regular season on the road and their first four postseason games.
The Phillies won’t say it but they probably matched up better with the Brewers and less familiarity would have played in their favor. That being said, the Phillies’ depth of pitching in the rotation and bullpen makes them the favorite.
Rotation questions
Zack Wheeler will pitch Game 1 and a possible Game 5 for the Phillies, which will be a huge advantage. The Cy Young award contender has proven to be one of the best big-game pitchers of this generation.
He has a 2.42 ERA in 11 postseason games – including 10 starts. He is also a former Met who was not considered a priority to re-sign when he moved on to the Phillies on a five-year, $118-million contract before the 2020 season.
Wheeler dominated the Mets in 2020 and 2021 but his numbers against his former team have been somewhat pedestrian the last few years.
The Phillies are debating between Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez for the Game 2 start. Both are good options, but Sanchez’s home ERA is about three runs lower than on the road so manager Rob Thomson said that could play a factor in the decision. Whoever doesn’t start Game 2 will start Game 3 with Ranger Suarez – who struggled down the stretch – in line for Game 4.
The Mets could go a number of ways. Peterson seemed to be the obvious Game 1 starter and still could be since he threw just one inning Thursday or the Mets could go with No. 5 starter Tylor Megill, who started a game New York won 2-1 over the Phillies and Wheeler last month.
Luis Severino will likely go Game 2. Figure Sean Manaea and likely Jose Quintana to pitch the two games in New York, though Peterson could be in play there if he doesn’t start in Philadelphia.
Big-game players
For the Mets, it starts with MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and Alonso – with the impending free agent cementing his New York legacy with his dramatic home run against the Brewers.
They’ve both had their moments this past week and you can throw Brandon Nimmo into the mix as well as a spark plug that will have to be on his game for the Mets to advance. They all have solid career numbers against Wheeler.
The Phillies have a lineup of stars none bigger than two-time MVP Bryce Harper, who has often been called “The Showman.” Harper has a postseason pedigree that includes the “Bedlam at the Bank” Game 5 NLCS home run in 2022 that sent the Phillies to the World Series.
Kyle Schwarber set a record for most leadoff home runs in a season this year with 14. This has arguably been his best season in his three with the Phillies as the tone-setter at the top of the lineup.
Shortstop Trea Turner will also be a key factor at the top of the Phillies’ lineup with his speed.
X-Factors
For the Phillies, new closer Carlos Estevez had some shaky moments at the end of the year. The Phillies have confidence getting him the ball with a lead with set-up men Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering but Estevez will have to close the deal if he’s the guy in the ninth inning. It will be interesting to see who the Phillies go to in the ninth if they have the choice of Hoffman, Strahm or Estevez.
The Phillies have a decision to make in the outfield. Johan Rojas is one of the best defensive center fielders in the league but can be an offensive liability – though he made strides at the end of the year.
Austin Hays was acquired from the Orioles in July to be an every-day player but he battled an injury and illness. He’s rounding into form and Thomson said he could start every game, though it’s also possible he’s the right-handed part of a left-field platoon with Brandon Marsh – if Rojas starts in center.
For the Mets, it could come down to building a bridge to Diaz. Jose Butto, Ryne Stanek, Reed Garrett and Maton will likely have to take down some big outs in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings and their bullpen mix is in greater flux than the Phillies.
Thank you for relying on us to provide the journalism you can trust. Please consider supporting NJ.com with a subscription.
Bill Evans can be reached at [email protected].
