All eyes are on the SEC in Week 5 as Georgia’s trip to Alabama is the main event headlining an expansive weekend of action across college football. Currently penned as unanimous choices to reach the College Football Playoff, the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are comfortable on the big stage with six of the previous eight matchups in this rivalry coming in the conference championship or national title game.
Unbeatens Illinois and Penn State highlight the Big Ten’s group of marquee games while Louisville-Notre Dame is a possible playoff-eliminator of sorts for the Fighting Irish if they fall for a second time in South Bend.
Clemson is back in this week’s updated playoff projection after throttling another opponent at home. Quarterback Cade Klubnik is playing the best football of his career and it looks like offensive coordiantor Garrett Riley has finally figured things out offensively in his second-year as offensive coordinator for the Tigers.
Projected CFP Rankings
1. Texas
SEC champion
Arch Manning wasn’t superman against ULM, but didn’t have to be for the Longhorns after Jaydon Blue scored three touchdowns on the ground and the Texas defense pummeled a talent-deprived opponent. Quinn Ewers may return this week at quarterback against Mississippi State, but if not, the Longhorns should have no problems corralling the Bulldogs, who have lost three straight. Meanwhile, Texas’ win over Michigan looks even better after the Wolverines beat USC, who was ranked No. 13 in the AP Top 25. The question is whether Texas will keep its No. 1 spot here against the winner of Georgia vs. Alabama.
2. Ohio State
Big Ten champion
Finally, the Buckeyes will play an opponent of substance this week when they travel to East Lansing to tackle first-year coach Jonathan Smith and Michigan State in the Big Ten opener for both teams. Nothing against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall, but the Spartans should provide a better challenge for this talent-stacked elite.
3. Miami
ACC champion
With a 404-yard performance at USF last week, Cam Ward strengthened his lead atop the Heisman picture nearing the midseason mark and continues to assault opposing secondaries with his arm. Miami could be tested Friday night in its ACC opener against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies have failed to live up to preseason billing up to this point.
4. BYU
Big 12 champion
For the first time, BYU is the projected Big 12 champion after making an emphatic statement at home against previously-unbeaten Kansas State. Over a six-minute stretch of game time from the end of the first half and early in the third quarter, the Cougars turned a 6-point deficit into a 25-point lead. Incredible. BYU takes its unblemished start to Baylor on Saturday. The Big 12 is wide open and we’ve had a fun time spotlighting different teams in this slot through the last few weeks — Iowa State, Utah and Kansas State most recently. Long way to go out there.
5. Georgia
No longer the projected SEC champion given the brutality of the remaining schedule — which includes trips to Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss — Kirby Smart’s team is certainly equipped to endure what the next few months will bring and if the Bulldogs make it to Atlanta and win the SECCG, then they’ll grab the No. 1 spot regardless of what any projections say. A win over the Crimson Tide this weekend would be a huge step in getting back to the playoff and also puts the Bulldogs back at No. 1 in various SEC power rankings going into October.
6. Ole Miss
Like many perceived title contenders, the Rebels and their transfer portal-enhanced roster have not faced a significant threat this season. Complacency is the biggest opposition for Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin has been pleased with the results. The first crack in conference comes Saturday against offensively-challenged Kentucky.
7. Oregon
Following an encouraging beatdown of Oregon State, the Ducks take on UCLA in Week 5 in hopes of continuing their march toward becoming the Big Ten’s best among league newcomers. It’s important for Dan Lanning’s group to focus on the Bruins and Michigan State over the next two weeks before worrying about the mammoth home game with Ohio State on Oct. 12.
8. Tennessee
No team in college football picked up a more notable win than the Vols in Week 4 after Josh Heupel went home to Oklahoma and left no doubt. It was the Tennessee defense that opened a lot of eyes nationally and solidified this team’s spot among the SEC’s better-respected elites. The Vols jumped five spots in the new AP Poll, too.
9. Penn State
Penn State’s 56-point whooping of Kent State was always going to be compared to how badly Tennessee beat the Golden Flashes the previous week — and the Nittany Lions did not disappoint. Big boy football starts Saturday night in Happy Valley against Illinois, a surprise unbeaten and the first of three nationally-ranked opponents left for Penn State.
10. Alabama
Kalen DeBoer’s arrival moment in the SEC could happen inside Bryant-Denny Stadium against Georgia, which marks the first time since 2007 that Alabama is a home underdog. The Crimson Tide drew blood in last season’s matchup against Georgia in the SEC Championship after Jalen Milroe spearheaded a momentous victory. If Alabama beats Georgia again, this projected spot as the playoff’s 10-seed significantly improves.
11. Clemson
Clemson moved back into the playoff picture with its thumping of NC State, the second straight game the Tigers have flexed noticeable muscle offensively. The Wolfpack may not get to bowl eligibility after starting the season inside the top 25, but it’s an impressive win for Dabo Swinney’s team, nonetheless. Clemson will be a betting favorite in every contest the rest of the season.
12. James Madison
Much like the projected Big 12 champion in these weekly playoff projections, the Group of Five choice continues to fluctuate. After Northern Illinois stubbed its toe against Buffalo, James Madison is this week’s biggest riser after dropping 70 points on North Carolina. The unbeaten Dukes are battling UNLV, Liberty, Boise State and others for this coveted auto-bid that’s given to the highest-ranked Group of Five champion at season’s end.
Projected CFP first-round games
- (12) James Madison at (5) Georgia — Winner plays (4) BYU
- (9) Penn State at (8) Tennessee — Winner plays (1) Texas
- (11) Clemson at (6) Ole Miss — Winner plays (3) Miami
- (10) Alabama at (7) Oregon — Winner plays (2) Ohio State
Opening-round matchups at campus sites based on this Week 5 projection features James Madison at Georgia, Clemson at Ole Miss, Alabama at Oregon and Penn State at Tennessee. The Tigers and Rebels have only met twice, the last matchup between the pair coming in 1933.
Winners of those four games would move on to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at bowl sites including the Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 team in the quarters, so top-seeded Texas would be playing in New Orleans.
Statements made, other opportunities squandered
Utah’s win at Oklahoma State in Week 4 pushed the Utes to the front of the Big 12’s early-season pack alongside BYU, but there’s still injury concerns at quarterback. Isaac Wilson performed admirably in an emergency start situation after Cameron Rising could not go for Utah, but it was Micah Bernard‘s career-best 182 yards rushing that carried the day. Without Rising out of the lineup, Utah’s no longer a projected favorite to win the conference despite being ranked No. 12 in this week’s AP Poll. BYU, UCF and Iowa State will all have a chance in an unpredictable league at this junction. You figure Rising will return soon, but you never know …
Conference USA favorite Liberty, who went unbeaten during the regular season last fall under Jamey Chadwell, trailed 17-0 to East Carolina in Week 4, but managed to erase that deficit and stay unbeaten. The same could not be said for Memphis, who was eyeing a top 25 berth prior to falling at Navy. Unbeaten UNLV will be the Group of Five champion if Barry Odom’s squad is able to finish 13-0 as the Mountain West winner. UNLV still has matchups with Fresno State, Oregon State and Boise State on the docket, however.
Michigan’s momentum-builder
The Wolverines’ late-game heroics against USC puts Michigan back in the playoff picture after its Big Ten opener, a much-needed bounce-back for Sherrone Moore and staff. There are still issues to address offensively in the passing game, but Michigan’s ability to control the line of scrimmage late and lean on its backfield doomed the Trojans, who fell out of this week’s playoff projection update. The Wolverines battle nationally-ranked Illinois and Oregon down the stretch this season before facing off with Ohio State in the finale.
Missouri avoided catastrophe in overtime against Vanderbilt and heads into its open week unbeaten prior to a road game at Texas A&M. That’s the first of three remaining matchups with top 25 teams during SEC play for the Tigers, who reloaded in the transfer portal and have all of their 2024 season-long goals up for grabs after posting 11 wins last fall.
Keep an eye on Louisville-Notre Dame this weekend. For Jeff Brohm’s team, it’s a show-me opportunity on a national stage against the one-loss Fighting Irish. On the other sideline, another setback for Notre Dame likely takes the Fighting Irish outside of future playoff projections and reignites chatter pertaining to the program’s future under third-year coach Marcus Freeman.
Dropped out of last week’s projections
Kansas State was the No. 4 team and the projected Big 12 Champion but was splattered by BYU on the road. The No. 23 Wildcats host No. 20 Oklahoma State this weekend. The loser is in a large early hole to make it to the conference championship game.
No. 11 USC lost a heartbreaker on the road to Michigan, but the Trojans looked pretty good. They have a show-me opportunity this weekend against Wisconsin on CBS (3:30 p.m. ET) and have a handful of opportunities to make their case as an at-large team (Penn State and Notre Dame come to Los Angeles this season). We’ll be talking about USC again before the season ends.
As mentioned, Northern Illinois’ overtime loss to Buffalo knocked it out of the CFP picture. The MAC probably does not have a legitimate playoff contender going forward given the teams tend to chew through each other once conference play begins — as we saw Saturday!
