The NFL season is more than a quarter complete for all but four of the league’s teams. Reflecting on the first four or five games, CBSSports.com takes inventory of what has been seen by the 2024 NFL Draft class and looks ahead to how the chase for the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards may play out.
The betting odds noted below are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
- QB Jayden Daniels, Commanders (-250)
- WR Malik Nabers, Giants (+575)
- QB Caleb Williams, Bears (+270)
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals (+1100)
- QB Bo Nix, Broncos (+2000)
Quarterbacks are always the best value in betting markets prior to the season because the voting skews so heavily in their favor, especially when one is deserving. Daniels has been exceptional early in his NFL career and the odds reflect as much. After leading his team to scoring drives on every possession that did not end in a kneel down over a two-game period, Daniels exceeded 200 passing yards and rushed for an additional 82 yards in a Sunday victory over a woeful Browns team.
If Nabers had continued on his path of destruction and Daniels were to hit a lull in his season, then perhaps the outcome of Offensive Rookie of the Year would be different. However, Nabers is dealing with a concussion while Daniels continues on his trajectory. If there were two players worthy of bets other than Daniels, they would be Nabers and Williams, but the latter needs to produce at a higher level.
Sleeper: WR Rome Odunze, Bears (+12500)
Odunze is playing well and the statistics (15 receptions for 206 yards, 1 TD) are not representative of his play. The idea would be that Nabers and Daniels come back to earth and Odunze blows up, but if that occurs, then his quarterback, Williams, is probably along for the ride. In all honesty, betting on Odunze would be reckless, but he is the caliber of player who could be considered good value at +12500.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
- EDGE Jared Verse, Rams (+225)
- EDGE Laiatu Latu, Colts (+500)
- CB Kamari Lassiter, Texans (+800)
- CB Quinyon Mitchell, Eagles (+1200)
- CB Nate Wiggins, Ravens (+2800)
In six of the past eight years, players able to accumulate nine-plus sacks in a season have been in pole position when it comes to winning the award. Cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Marshon Lattimore won it the other two years. Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Shaquille Leonard were previously able to win the award with seven sacks. From a statistical perspective, it is more difficult for cornerbacks to construct a case for the award, even when their quality of play suggests that they deserve consideration.
Among players with at least 50 pas- rush snaps, Verse leads all rookies with a 21.5% pressure rate, according to TruMedia. His problem thus far has been finishing plays. On the year, the ex-Seminole has just one sack to show for all of those pressures. No one is putting themselves in position to make those plays as much as Verse.
Latu is an incredibly skilled rusher, so the light could turn on and the production would follow. The cornerbacks have been up and down this season. There is not a clear favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at this time, which represents an opportunity to get good value in the betting markets on candidates who may have the talent, but not the statistics to make a case for the award.
Sleeper: S Malik Mustapha, 49ers (+12500)
Mustapha has received extended playing time in recent weeks and that should continue as long as Talanoa Hufanga is dealing with an injury. Mustapha plays as though his hair were on fire. He has a sack and should have had an interception in Week 4 against the Patriots. If he can continue piling those drive-altering, game-changing plays, then he can climb up the leaderboard.
