The polls are tight — and many are considered fake. The betting markets reportedly are rigged. So, who is a voter to believe when searching for a prediction on who will be elected president on Nov. 5: Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump?
Well, so-called presidential election Nostradamus who has nailed every presidential election except one since 1984, is sticking with the pick he made months ago, when the polls were against her.
Harris will beat Trump on Tuesday, said Allan Lichtman — who predicted Trump would win in 2016, when most national polls showed Hillary Clinton far ahead and that Trump would lose against Joe Biden in 2020, told USA Today.
“Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5, in defiance of the polls,” Lichtman said in a YouTube video.
Lichtman, a historian at American University, predicted in September Harris would win the race. He bases his forecast on true-or-false questions — or “keys” — on the candidates and not on current polling.
Midterm Gains
“The Democrats did better than expected in 2022. But they still lost House seats, so the key is false.”
Incumbency
“Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key. It is false. … If Biden stayed in they would have salvaged this one key. That’s all.”
Primary Contest
“The Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris, so the key is true.”
Third party
“RFK Jr. dropped out of the race and no other third-party candidate is anywhere close to the 10% polling threshold needed to turn this key. It’s true.”
Short-Term Economy
“Look, despite all the loose talk about a so-called vibecession, the economy is not in recession, so this key is true.”
Long-Term Economy
“Growth during the Biden term is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms, so this key is clearly true.”
Policy Change
“Rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change, the CHIPS bill, the infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction (Act) and climate change bill. Clearly, the key is true.”
Social Unrest
“There have been sporadic protests, but nothing approaching the massive sustained social unrest needed to turn this key, so it’s true. … yes, there are a lot of protesters upset with Biden’s polices in the Middle East, but now with Harris, not Biden front and center, that has dampened social unrest.”
White House Scandal
“Oh, my favorite key, the scandal key. And Republicans have been trying for years to pin a scandal on President Biden and come up empty, so the key is true. … There has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of actual corruption that implicates the president himself and not a family member, so the key remains true.”
Incumbent Charisma
“This is a very high threshold key. You have to be a once-in-a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that standard, so this key is false.”
Challenger Charisma
“Some people think Donald Trump is a god, but he only appeals to a narrow base, so that key is true.”
Lichtman said eight “keys” were “true” for Harris and were unchanged since September. Three were deemed “false” and favored Trump: White House party gained House seats in the 2022 mid-terms, the sitting president is running for reelection and the determination that Harris wasn’t a particularly charismatic candidate. Foreign policy failure or success were a toss up and could be pivotal.
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