The biggest, breakout star in MMA over the past few years returns on Saturday as Alex Pereira looks to make the third defense of his light heavyweight title against Khalil Rountree Jr. at UFC 307.
The pay-per-view event, which emanates from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, is considered anything but a loaded card. But with two title fights atop the marquee and the return of Brazlian legend Jose Aldo, there are no shortage of storylines to consider.
Let’s take a closer look at what to watch for as this weekend’s fights draw closer.
1. When in doubt, the UFC continues to call upon “Poatan”
How valuable is Alex Pereira to the UFC promotional machine at the moment? Well, the Brazilian slugger and two-division UFC champion bailed the company out last November when Jon Jones-Stipe Miocic fell apart and a new main event was needed at New York’s Madison Square Garden. Pereira did the same in April when he was called upon to fill a late void atop the marquee at UFC 300 in Las Vegas. Oh yeah, and then there was that time just two months later when Conor McGregor pulled out of a long-awaited return bout with a broken toe at UFC 303 and International Fight Week in June only for Pereira, who was nursing his own broken toe, to step in once again. So who does the UFC call for an in-between PPV card in Salt Lake City? It’s Pereira. But, considering UFC could have easily called the number of the much more deserving Magomed Ankalaev (an incredibly tough stylistic challenge) for Pereira’s next fight yet decided upon the No. 8-ranked Rountree, who will stand in front of “Poatan” all night, this might be the reward for Pereira’s company loyalty. Pereira is 5-to-1 betting favorite against Rountree following seven straight UFC fights where he was no larger than a -155 favorite in any bout. The biggest unknown could come in the form of a post-fight callout should Pereira win as he continues to publicly campaign for a return back down to middleweight to face champion Dricus du Plessis.
2. Rountree’s recent turnaround has been impressive yet deceiving
For as much of a surprise as it was to hear Rountree announced as Pereira’s next title challenge at 205 pounds, the 34-year-old “War Horse” is at least riding a five-fight win streak, including four by devastating knockout. And the streak of victories came immediately after a stretch in which Rountree lost three of four. Rountree also has a great personal story of having overcome so much along his journey to get to where he is now, on the verge of a potential life-changing opportunity. So, why has there been so much debate about Rountree cutting the line? A lot of that comes down to who he has (and, more importantly, hasn’t) defeated to get to this point. Rountree has only fought one name who is currently in the UFC top 10 at light heavyweight and lost via first-round knockout (to Johnny Walker in 2018). He also only defeated one fighter ranked in the top 10 during his current win streak, Anthony Smith, who was No. 8 at the time and is currently in the midst of having lost five of his last seven. His previous three wins also came against opponents who were going through extremely hard times: Chris Daukas (cut by UFC after 2023 loss to Rountree, currently riding 5-fight losing skid), Dustin Jacoby (has lost four of his last five) and Karl Robertson (who was cut by UFC in 2022 and is currently riding a 5-fight losing skid). Modestas Bukauskas, whom Rountree stopped to begin his win streak, was also cut by UFC immediately after the fight following his third straight loss.
3. Kayla Harrison can’t enter the women’s bantamweight title picture fast enough
Following Harrison’s long-awaited UFC debut in April, which saw her dominate and submit former champion Holly Holm, most expected the two-time Olympic gold medalist and former PFL star to get an instant title shot. The 34-year-old Harrison, who cut down to 135 pounds for the first time at UFC 300, may only have a certain amount of extreme weight cuts in her and the lack of depth at bantamweight couldn’t be more glaring in the aftermath of Amanda Nunes’ retirement. Instead, Harrison will weigh in as the backup for Saturday’s co-main event and will have another fight of her own on the PPV main card against Ketlen Viera, in which Harrison is a -900 betting favorite. So, what are we actually doing here? Great question! Harrison must wait for former champion Julianna Pena to get a crack at Raquel Pennington’s title despite the fact that Pena hasn’t fought in two years since she was soundly outpointed (by scores of 50-45, 50-44 and 50-43) in her title rematch with Nunes. Pena is also just 3-3 since 2017. Pennington’s January win over Mayra Bueno Silva for the vacant title was anything but inspiring due to the flat performance from both, but Harrison will still be forced to clear one more hurdle before a possible shot at UFC gold.
4. Jose Aldo continues to flaunt incredible longevity atop the sport
After losing his first two bouts at 135 pounds, including a one-sided title defeat to Petr Yan in 2020, most felt that was likely the end for Aldo’s two-division title hopes following a legendary run as featherweight king. Instead, the Brazilian living legend has quietly put together an impressive run in the sport’s deepest division ever, having won four of his last five. The 38–year-old ageless wonder returns as a slight betting underdog against red-hot Mario Bautista, who has quietly won six straight fights and eight of his last nine dating back to 2019. While there’s a large argument to be made that Aldo, given his age and celebrity name, should be seeking fun and celebratory fights against fellow legends at this point, it would be hard to deny him one more run at a title shot with a win over Bautista. And even though Aldo’s lone defeat since 2020 came against current champion Merab Dvalishvili two years ago, Aldo stubbornly stuffed all 16 takedown attempts from the grappling savant and lost a close decision. “The King of Rio” is already going against the grain by moving down in weight so late in his career but as the No. 10-ranked bantamweight in UFC, it’s impossible to count him out given his experience and the commitment he still shows to entering fights in world-class shape.
5. Two-time champion Carla Esparza says goodbye with retirement bout
At 36, and fresh off giving birth to a son, “The Cookie Monster” has decided to end her career on her own terms with a final walk to the Octagon on Saturday against fellow strawweight veteran Tecia Pennington. The bout represents the end of an era, in some ways, as both fighters were part of the inaugural class of 115-pound fighters who first debuted a decade ago on “The Ultimate Fighter.” Esparza went on to become the first UFC strawweight champion by submitting Rose Namajunas in the show’s finale. She would later go on to add an unlikely second title reign two years ago by defeating Namajunas a second time (via split decision in a bizarre and forgettable affair). It’s also somewhat of a rematch considering Esparza claimed a majority decision over Pennington (who was previously known as Tecia Torres) during the TUF season.
