VP debate live updates: JD Vance has more to gain than Tim Walz, analysts say

Vance is playing for more at tonight’s debate due to his already low approval ratings, PIMCO analysts say in a new report.

Typically, the analysts note, VP debates tend to have a negligible effect on presidential races. But given that this election is set to be won “by a matter of inches, not feet” the running mates’ performances tonight may carry heavier weight than usual.

So far, Vance’s comments about “childless cat ladies” and debunked claims about immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio have put the Trump campaign on several bouts of damage control.

Those blunders and his low approval ratings give Vance “more upside – and potentially more downside as well” in the face-off against Walz.

— Rebecca Picciotto

Trump is slightly favored to win the election, even though Harris is ahead in the polls, according to Stifel Financial‘s chief Washington policy strategist.

“Based on election fundamentals and comparisons of past election to the current one, we think Trump is in a better position to win the Electoral College vote than some people realize,” the expert, Brian Gardner, writes in a new analyst note.

He points to voters’ lingering doubts about the economy and Trump’s enduring, albeit shrinking, advantage on the issue. And while Harris currently holds a roughly 2-point lead in the polls, Gardner says that Trump is in a stronger position now than he was in the 2016 election, when he beat Hillary Clinton.

Gardner cites the RealClearPolitics polling average, which in recent election cycles has faced scrutiny over the data it chooses to aggregate.

The analyst also favors Republicans to flip the Senate — which Democrats currently lead 51-49 — but predicts the GOP is more likely to lose its majority in the House.

— Kevin Breuninger

Vance fired back at MSNBC anchor Stephanie Ruhle this week for fact-checking his claim that his children “eat about 14 eggs every single morning.”

Vance made the statement on Sept. 21 during a campaign stop at Pennsylvania supermarket, attempting to make a point about high grocery costs under the Biden-Harris administration.

Over a week later, Ruhle calculated that two children eating 14 eggs per day would result in them eating 98 eggs per week, which she pointed out in an X post. Vance has three children, ages, six, four and two.

He responded to Ruhle by implying that the egg statement was mere hyperbole, and that the MSNBC anchor was taking the claim too literally.

“One time I said I was so tired I could sleep for days,” Vance wrote in his Monday post. “Stephanie Ruhle: Vance, in fact, only slept for 8 hours.”

— Rebecca Picciotto

Netflix was hit with a surge in cancellations in the five days after its co-founder and chairman, Reed Hastings, endorsed Harris for president in an X post in July, Bloomberg has reported. At the time, Hastings also announced in an interview that he donated $7 million to a pro-Harris PAC,

The rate of cancellations nearly tripled in the U.S. in the days following the endorsement, according to data from market research firm Antenna. July 26, four days after the endorsement, was the single worst day for Netflix cancellations this year.

— Ece Yildirim

Walz has a policy record in Minnesota that some progressives might only dream of.

With a Democratic governing trifecta and a nearly $18 billion budget surplus, Walz has been able to strengthen union protections, invest over $1 billion in housing resources, pass universal paid family and medical leave, make school lunch free for all students, hike corporate taxes and more.

Walz’s policy achievements serve as a proving ground for some of the Harris campaign’s economic platform. But his liberal spending record and at-times tense relationship with corporations could also serve as a line of attack for Vance in tonight’s debate.

Read more CNBC coverage of Walz’s corporate battles and his overall Minnesota track record.

— Rebecca Picciotto

Walz will begin the day in Harbor Springs, Michigan where he and his team have been since Saturday, preparing for the debate. He will make his way to New York City in the morning.

Like Harris, Walz did his debate prep in a swing state, seizing the opportunity to log a few extra days in a battleground and potentially earn some goodwill among voters there.

Vance flew from Ohio to New York City Monday afternoon, ahead of tonight’s debate.

While Vice President Harris has no scheduled campaign appearances for the day, Trump has two in Wisconsin. The former president will deliver remarks at 2:30 pm ET at a manufacturer in Waunakee, followed by remarks at 6 pm ET at Discovery World Science & Technology Museum in Milwaukee.

— Ece Yildirim

Vance and Walz will face off tonight in New York City, a fitting backdrop for a sparring match that could focus on the economy and high costs of living, which consistently rank as voters top issues.

New York City is plagued by an ongoing affordability crisis.

As of 2022, the median home price in NYC was $724,000, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The median household income that year was $72,000. As a result, nearly 70% of the population rents their homes.

The office market has also suffered in the wake of the pandemic as remote work policies hollowed out office buildings, leaving some sectors within commercial real estate crumbling.

Still, home to Wall Street and a burgeoning tech sector, NYC’s five boroughs comprise the largest economy in the state and one of the largest in the world.

— Rebecca Picciotto

The New York Times Editorial Board has endorsed Harris for president in an opinion piece, calling her “the only patriotic choice for president.”

“It is hard to imagine a candidate more unworthy to serve as president of the United States than Donald Trump,” the editorial board wrote, arguing that the former president is “morally” and “temperamentally unfit” for the role.

The piece also criticized Trump’s criminal charges and older age compared to Harris, as well as “his fundamental lack of interest in policy and his increasingly bizarre cast of associates.”

“A second Trump term would be much more damaging and divisive than the first,” the editorial board wrote.

— Ece Yildirim