FORT COLLINS, Colo. — On a clear, warm, late-summer Friday, the Pac-12 never looked so good. Colorado State athletic director John Weber and president Amy Parsons couldn’t contain their joy. They were suddenly stewards of a 109-year-old tradition.
A tradition that no longer existed — until it did once again.
The Pac-12 returned last week, albeit in a significantly altered form. When Oregon State and Washington State convinced Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Boise State to join their conference under the Pac-12 banner, it set off another round of realignment — one could reach as far as Florida and impact powerhouses in Montana as well as the Dakotas.
“We’re basically rebooting a conference,” said Weber, a veteran businessman with an engineering background.
The new “Six Pac” has remade itself with the addition of those four Mountain West schools but is still two short, per NCAA rules, before it meets the eight-team minimum required to be recognized as an FBS conference. It’s also short in another area: a TV partner. You know, the financial glue that keeps conferences together.
The Pac-12 under George Kliavkoff imploded from within because conference executives misread the market. It can be argued the new iteration of the league is in more tenuous shape because it doesn’t have a media rights partner, nor is it eligible to be recognized as an FBS conference. How do you bid on something that doesn’t exist yet?
CBS Sports was able to speak to Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould about that subject approximately 30 hours after the latest realignment move. The addition of those four schools came together at the last minute, which is why the likes of Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez and her remaining teams were gobsmacked.
Now, back to the media deal. We’re less than two years away from the Pac-12 re-imagination actually taking the field. Typically, schools and media suitors would be way down the line toward a new deal less than two years out. The new Pac-12 either has one in place or must rush to get one by July 1, 2026.
Colorado State got to the big time — well, the Pac-12 — without a site visit from any conference, according to Parsons.
Industry sources weren’t sure which way forward the Pac-12 would take. They were sure almost unanimously that the new Pac-12 won’t get much more than the current Mountain West deal, which is $45 million per year from current rights holders Fox and CBS. (TNT has a smaller deal for a handful of lower-echelon games.)
The reconfigured Pac-12 is relying heavily on the former conference’s IP address. The fancy marketing definition of IP is “brand value.” Cut to the core, IP is basically a string of numbers separated by periods that carries an identity on the internet.
Those six schools now own “pac12.com” and everything that comes with it, which is the issue. The old Pac-12 broke apart basically because Utah president Taylor Randall convinced his peers that the league was worth $50 million per school. They were brutally wrong.
Will the new Pac-12 make the same mistake as the old Pac-12 in overvaluing itself?
“Yes, it has been vetted,” Weber assured CBS Sports last week. “We’re confident in our decision. We’re confident in our future. We’re confident in our opportunity. One thing I’ve learned in business is every time there is change, there is opportunity associated with that change.”
The opportunity this time is to assemble like-minded schools, mostly in the Western footprint, that are worth more than the current Mountain West. Skeptics abound.
The current deal with Fox and CBS has netted MWC members an average of between $4 million to $5 million per year. Boise State has a long-standing weighted share of $7 million annually because it was the flagship program for the conference. CBS Sports has learned that will no longer be the case with the new Pac-12. All six members, so far, have agreed to equal shares.
“Everyone is equal in the Pac-12,” Parsons said.
Those industry sources all wondered how the reconstituted Pac-12 is going to make much more than the current MWC. There was a collective shoulder shrug.
“I don’t see them getting a better deal anywhere else,” said one prominent industry source familiar with media rights negotiations.
So, then, why did the Pac-12 conduct the raid in the first place? The two schools are sitting on a stash of cash worth a quarter of a billion dollars. For starters, these are the schools Oregon State and Washington State have judged are the best looking going forward.
There is room for growth in any league as naming rights, jersey sponsorships and private equity become possibilities. At first glance of this deal, the move was made strictly along television dividing lines. Only one of the six new Pac-12 schools (Washington State) is among the top 50 in total TV viewers since 2016. That’s actually a positive. The eight MWC schools left behind range from 83rd in that category to 104th. (More below)
There simply isn’t a lot of money in the media rights ecosystem at the moment. All the major conferences are tied up in media rights deals that expire early next decade. (The ACC goes out to 2036). NBC, Disney and Amazon recently concluded a deal that will pay the NBA a staggering $76 billion through 2036.
What network would overpay for a Pac-12 that still isn’t officially a conference yet? The CW, with 100% broadcast carriage in the U.S., has a deal this season with Oregon State and Washington State. A wild card might be Turner, which theoretically has a bunch of money to spend after losing the NBA. Turner’s parent company, Warner Bros. Discovery, got the NHL fairly cheaply but spent lavishly recently ($650 million) on the French Open.
“I feel confident in the team and the expertise I have around me,” Gould told CBS Sports. “It’s a little premature to start talking about or placing numbers on a media value. Our priority is member strategy.”
CBS Sports was also able to determine the eight remaining MWC members are not necessarily out of the running to join the Pac-12. The most likely candidates would be UNLV and Air Force; however, the AAC is interested in those schools as well.
Why those two weren’t included in what Gould called “Phase I” of the expansion isn’t clear. Early reports suggesting that UNLV was tethered to Nevada in the state for political reasons look to be untrue at this point. The Las Vegas Review-Journal quoted an influential booster Sunday saying the two schools are not “Siamese twins.”
In fact, there is precedent. UNLV entered the old WAC in 1994 without Nevada. UNLV seems to be attractive as Las Vegas is an emerging sports capital, but it should be noted the school has the fewest TV viewers in the current Mountain West across the last eight years.
That uncertainty about whether to take UNLV right away could be simple issue of financials. It will cost the Pac-12 about $113 million to pay the exit fees and penalties of the four new schools.
The irony is that Washington State and Oregon State will use that money left over from the old Pac-12 (approximately $250 million) to pay for four Mountain West schools the old Pac-12 turned its nose up at.
Adding any more MWC members would seemingly cut into that war chest. There are early indications the Mountain West will dig in and fight for every penny of those exit fees.
It might be easier for the new Pac-12 to shake loose the likes of Memphis and UTSA from the American, but those schools aren’t going to add much value to the deal either.
“It’s not like these are great big ratings grabber schools,” one industry source said.
Meanwhile, the wounded Mountain West intends to soldier on. Look for possibly some additions from Conference USA if it comes to that. Sacramento State is reportedly making a push to join the Pac-12 or Mountain West.
Geography is not a factor in the Pac-12, according to Gould, which means the likes of South Florida could be in play. But in this what-have-you-done-for-me-today world of realignment, UNLV and Memphis made the biggest statements in Week 3. The Rebels moved to 3-0, winning on the road against Kansas. Florida State was Memphis’ (also 3-0) latest victim.
“Our presidents and ADs are open to lots of different membership iterations,” Gould told CBS Sports.
The new Pac-12 can’t wait to get going. A record crowd of almost 41,000 showed up Saturday night to watch their Rams lose to the Colorado in the Rocky Mountain Showdown.
Parsons called it Colorado State’s biggest game “maybe ever.” After Saturday, there had better be more to come.
“We’re going to run into that fire and do what’s best for Colorado State,” Weber said.
What’s next in latest round of conference realignment?
Is this the moment when FCS powers from the Dakotas and Montana move up to populate the Mountain West? North Dakota State, North Dakota, South Dakota State, Montana and Montana State have played in 11 of the last 12 NCAA Division I national championship games. Pros for those schools: FBS, the big time. Access, in theory, to the College Football Playoff. Con: without saying it, the game’s stakeholders — cough, cough, the Power Four — don’t want to see any more Kennesaw States move up to FBS. To them, the division is too crowded now with 134 teams. That’s one reason the Power Four are pushing for their own NCAA governance structure.
California and Stanford may have given up on being part of a West Coast presence too early: The pair could have joined Oregon State and Washington State and sucked it up for two years as independents after the Pac-12 broke up. The Pac-12 would look much stronger. In hindsight, that looks like the smartest play. The Bears and Cardinal acted out of desperation, hooking on with the cross-country ACC for a 30% share of the per-school media revenue for the next seven years. It’s doubtful the two academic giants would bolt after a year, incurring the legal wrath of the ACC. How’s that working for Florida State?
If the MWC stays together, the FBS would stay at 10 conference members: However, the Pac-12 would likely supplant the Mountain West as the strongest Group of Five conference. Asked specifically about lobbying for Power Five status, Weber said, “I still think there is so much change coming. I don’t think anyone knows whether the concept of the Power Four or Power Five even exists two years from now.”
That’s a good point and a big hint that the FBS may somehow subdivide again to include the top 50-80 schools. The prospect of survival might define why the Pac-12 did what it did than anything else.
Oregon State and Washington State rank near the bottom in TV ratings in the former Pac-12: Since 2016, Washington State ranked eighth (43rd overall, as mentioned) and Oregon State ranked 11th (64th overall) in total viewers in the old Pac-12. One industry source suggested a resurrection of “Pac-12 After Dark.” Not so fast. It’s one thing drawing fans to UCLA games that start at 11 pm ET. It’s another trying to get an audience Fresno State-Colorado State late at night. And as more than one analyst pointed out, the best windows are already accounted for by other conferences. That includes the late night now (after 10:00 pm ET), which will include those four Big Ten schools on the West Coast, as well as Arizona and Arizona State in the Big 12.
For what it’s worth, the eight remaining MWC schools — if they stay together — will go to market looking like this in total viewership since 2016:
- Air Force: 81st
- Utah State: 83rd
- Wyoming: 84th
- Hawaii: 94th
- Nevada: 100th
- New Mexico: 102nd
- San Jose State: 103rd
- UNLV: 104th
In the new Pac-12, no school is ranked lower than 86th (San Diego State).
It’s undetermined whether the remaining MWC schools will stay together: Do they stick it out in some sort of lesser league or scatter to the four winds? Air Force is probably the most attractive school, along with UNLV. “If the Pac-12 wants to claim Denver as a media market, they need both Colorado State and Air Force,” former WAC and Sun Belt commissioner Karl Benson said.
Air Force has received interest from the American as an expansion candidate as well. That league could then boast having all three service academies under one roof.
The new Pac-12’s share of CFP revenue will be an issue at some point: The new deal signed earlier this year rewards the Big Ten and SEC each with 29% of the take annually (approximately $22 million per school). After that, it’s ACC at 17% ($13 million-$14 million) and the Big 12 at 15% ($12 million). The Group of Five conferences together split 9% (about $1.8 million per school).
Don’t expect the new Pac-12 to stay at that minimum eight teams for several reasons: For starters, it would be the smallest FBS league. Content is king to media partners, and the new Pac-12 will need more of it to secure a more lucrative TV deal. The biggest issue with eight teams is there’s a giant hole to fill with five nonconference games. That’s a tough task and may hurt schedule strength. Bottom line: look for the new membership to approach the number in its given name, the “Pac-12”.
Ranking the favorites to join the league: Whether the league expands to 9, 10, 11 or 12 teams …
- Air Force
- UNLV
- Memphis
- UTSA
The Pac-12 is using noted media advisor Navigate to determine its valuation in the marketplace: Navigate priced Gonzaga’s annual value at $15 million per year if it ever joined a Power Five conference. The Zags remain in the West Coast Conference.
One significant piece of programming to consider: The Pac-12 Championship Game will be valued because the winner is virtually assured of a playoff spot. It’s up to the viewer, but a do-or-die championship game has worth compared to maybe Oregon and Penn State meeting for a second time in a season in the Big Ten champ with only seeding at stake.
