Two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL square off Sunday when the Baltimore Ravens host the Washington Commanders at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is established in the NFL as a two-time MVP. Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels is well on his way to matching that over his career.
Daniels has the Commanders flying high with four-straight wins, but as the team with the better track record, the Ravens are strong favorites for Sunday’s game in Baltimore.
Here are the NFL Week 6 odds for the game plus our Commanders vs. Ravens prediction and best bet.
Commanders vs. Ravens predictions
- Under 52 points (-110 odds at bet365 Sportsbook)
- Commanders team total under 22.5 points (-110 odds at Caesars Sportsbook)
- Derrick Henry rushing yards over 90.5 (+120 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook)
What a season it has been for Daniels and the Commanders. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has been a star while leading the team to a 4-1 record.
We have to pump the breaks this week, however.
Washington has played some bad defenses during the winning streak, and Sunday it faces the best rushing defense in the league. Baltimore has allowed a paltry 60 rushing yards per game and three yards per carry.
If the Commanders cannot run the ball effectively, Daniels will become more one-dimensional than he has been in a long time. Is he ready to pick apart an NFL defense with his passing when the defense knows it’s coming?
He’ll surely pick up first downs with his legs, but he probably won’t do it enough over four quarters to keep the Commanders from having to chase this game.
This is a big step up in competition for Daniels. He may be able to tackle an obstacle like this in the future, but expecting him to do so in his sixth pro game is a little much.
If the Ravens are going to limit Washington’s offense, it probably means they are playing in a positive or neutral game script. That means they’ll be in a position to run the ball effectively against the Commanders’ struggling rush defense.
That bodes well for the clock running, which bodes well for the under because it limits possessions.
Of course, the horse in that running game is RB Derrick Henry. He has hit his stride in the past three games, averaging 6.9 yards per carry on his way to 442 yards.
Arizona’s James Conner and New York’s Devin Singletary rushed for at least 95 yards against the Commanders. If those two can do that, then what can King Henry do?
NFL Week 6 Commanders vs. Ravens odds
When the betting markets opened late last week, Baltimore was a 7-point favorite at most online sportsbooks. The line dropped to 6.5 on Sunday night after the Commanders’ dominant win over Cleveland.
The best sports betting apps listed this total as high as 52.5 points early in the week, but it has dropped to 51.5 points.
Commanders vs. Ravens moneyline odds analysis
Why Baltimore could win as the favorite
Best odds: -300 at BetMGM Sportsbook
After losing their first two games, the Ravens have rattled off three consecutive victories. They all have been against good teams. The Week 4 blowout of Buffalo was the most impressive. Week 5’s overtime win at Cincinnati probably meant the most.
The Ravens are rolling, and they’re one of the NFL’s top teams when they are on top of their game. Henry has been a revelation in Baltimore’s offense, and there is no reason to expect him to slow down against Washington’s defense, which has allowed 5.1 yards per carry – the second-worst mark in the NFL.
The Washington defense is a great matchup for Jackson, who keeps climbing the NFL MVP odds board. The Commanders have given up a league-worst 11 touchdown passes and have intercepted zero passes.
Giddy-up, Ravens.
Why Washington could win as the underdog
Best odds: +260 at FanDuel Sportsbook
As bad as the Commanders’ defense has been, it hasn’t prevented the team from winning. The biggest reason why is the offense.
Daniels is operating a high-octane attack that has allowed RB Brian Robinson Jr. to rack up five rushing touchdowns — one short of the league lead held by Henry. Daniels has four rushing TDs of his own and ranks 16th in the league with 300 rushing yards. Overall, the Commanders lead the league with 13 rushing TDs – four more than the next-best team.
Baltimore leads the league in rushing defense, but if the Commanders can stay in the game and prevent themselves from becoming one-dimensional, it will be an attack the Ravens have not seen this season.
If Baltimore’s defense doesn’t know whether Daniels will run or pass, it will be in trouble.
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